In the arid region of Saurashtra, the Bharatiya Janata Party may face some heat in an otherwise effortless ride in Gujarat, home State of its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi. The growing political consciousness among Koli voters, who are now a force to reckon with, has thrown up challenges for the saffron party and its upper caste voters alike.
The Congress and the BJP are vying hard for the Koli community vote in the Bhavnagar seat, a BJP bastion. The BJP has held the seat unbroken since 1991. However, with the Koli factor at play, the party chose not to re-nominate five-time MP Rajendrasinh Rana, a Rajput. To counter Congress candidate Pravin Rathod, a Koli, the BJP has fielded Bhartiben Shiyal, also from the same community.
“The Congress is trying to consolidate the Koli vote and the BJP is trying to split it so that it can benefit from the votes of other caste groups. For the past 25 years that the BJP has held this seat, it has always fielded Rajputs or Kshatriyas. In 2004, the Congress gave a ticket to a Koli, but Mr. Rana won by 6,000 votes.
This is the first time that we are seeing a Koli versus Koli fight, said Mulraj Sinh a, Rajput voter from Bhavnagar.
In this scenario, Mr. Modi’s candidature for the PM’s post is expected to garner upper caste votes. “Modi is the only deciding factor. No one cares about the candidates,” Kamal Joshi from Bhavnagar said.
The Kolis are the largest caste group in Gujarat, but compared to the more prosperous community of Patels they are economically and socially backward. Known to vote in large numbers, including Koli women voters, they will decide the outcomes in most of the seven Lok Sabha constituencies that fall in Saurashtra — Surendranagar, Rajkot, Porbandar, Jamnagar, Junagadh, Amreli and Bhavnagar. Their assertion was discernible in the 2012 State Assembly elections and even earlier, when it became clear that the community was favouring its own candidates irrespective of party lines.
“The Kolis constitute about 20 per cent of Gujarat’s population, followed by Patels, who constitute about 15 per cent of Gujaratis, as per the 1931 Census. Till now the Patels were dominant, but Kolis are asserting themselves in Saurashtra, especially in the Surendranagar and Rajkot constituencies, where the Congress candidates are strong. The Kolis have also started using Patel as their surname,” political analyst Achyut Yagnik said.
Uncle vs. nieceIn Jamnagar, a Congress stronghold, there is a close contest between sitting Congress MP Vikram Madam and his niece Poonam Madam of the BJP, formerly with the Congress.
Mr. Madam has himself described the Jamnagar battle as “a genuine contest.” He enjoys much popularity among the people who speak of his good nature and timely help in the time of need. His prospects are also bolstered by the presence of a large population of Muslim fisherfolk, chiefly concentrated along the coast of Jamnagar.
Porbandar is the only seat in Gujarat where the BJP will be vying with the Nationalist Congress Party’s Kandalbhai Jadeja, MLA from Kutiyana. He may not be a match for sitting MP Vitthal Radadiya, but may hurt the BJP by taking a portion of the Maher community votes.
Notably, the Porbandar seat went to the Congress in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, but Mr. Radadiya switched to the BJP.
