Nistula Hebbar speaks to political scientist Ashwani Kumar, co-editor of the book “Migrants, Mobility and Citizenship in India” on Election Commission’s decision to explore Remote Voting for migrants…..
Q. The Election Commission of India’s (ECI) decision to start the process of enabling migrant workers to vote remotely in polls in their home States has put the spotlight on this category of invisible voters. What is the extent of internal migration in India and its contours?
A: The EC’s decision to enable migrants especially short-term, circulatory migrant workers is going to be historic in making India a more inclusive, participatory and vibrant democracy. Political marginalisation of migrants is severe and debilitating in India largely due to bureaucratic obstacles. This has not only resulted into what we call the phenomenon of ‘de-facto disenfranchisement’ of migrants, it has also led to huge ‘citizenship deficit’ as Dalits, Adivasis, and extremely backward castes form the bulk of the poorer and working sections of migrants in India.
As per Census 2011, there are more than 450 million migrants- amounting to 37% of the population. Given the normal growth in the demographic patterns in India, this number has already increased to around 580 million plus since the last census. But here is a big catch. The political marginalisation of migrants also happens due to methodological and policy flaws because government data gathering systems don’t capture what we call “seasonal migrants/ circulatory migrants/SHORT term” migrants. Based on triangulating sources including NSSO and micro studies, we have estimated the number of short term/ seasonal migrants from 200 million to 250 million- the most exploited, most disenfranchised citizens who were preponderant in the crowd of jobless hungry migrants walking back home during the COVID-19 crisis.
Also read: Explained | Will migrants be able to vote remotely?
Q. What has been the extent of political engagement of this category of population?
A. Interstate migrants make up to 40% of the populations of cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Bangalore, and Surat but migrants specially short-term migrant workers are a highly disenfranchised segment in elections because registration and turnout rates are disproportionately low among urban migrants. We all know that ‘sons of soils’ politicians, hostility of last-mile electoral officials, corruption and classism mar India’s voter registration system. For instance, in 2014, only 65% of recent migrants to Delhi possessed a voter ID card allowing them to vote in city elections, while the overall average for Delhi residents was 85%. Also empirical studies point that the median processing time for new voter registrations is to be 150 days for middle-class Delhi residents and 331 days for the city’s slum resident.
Political Scientist Tariq Thachil (2017) finds in a sample of Delhi construction workers that only one in five migrants had ever voted in the city’s elections. And this will shock you. As per our TISS study on ‘Inclusive Elections in India” sponsored by Election Commission of India, 60% and 83% of domestic migrants have failed to cast a ballot in at least one national, state, or local election after moving- lowering voter turnout in the destination sites. Though ‘Sons of Soil’ challenges have moderated significantly, but fears of electoral backlash from constituents continue to deter political parties from extending voting rights to migrants- this weakens incentives to provide constituency services to them- the crux of lack of political incentive for migrants to vote.
Also read: Opposition divided on remote voting machines for migrants
Q. Will technology be able to enable this kind of voting, with legitimacy?
A. Using additional protocols like VVPAT, ECI has effectively handled critics of EVM. Complied with provisions of secret voting, and linked with Aadhar card Remote Voting will incentivize migrant workers to vote away from the constituencies in which they are registered. As demonstrated in the case of EVM, this technology will further reduce the possibility of electoral identity frauds and related electoral malpractices. Don’t forget that this has also the potential to improve/ increase migrant registration rates and election turn out significantly. For instance, micro studies suggest that ‘ease of voting’- like providing at- home assistance in completing and submitting voter registration documents—increases migrant registration rates by 24 percentage points and next-election turnout by 20 percentage points. It also shifts downstream outcomes, raising political interest and perceptions of local political accountability. For enhancing the legitimacy of the new technology, it’s imperative for ECI to develop a robust national data set by identification of short-term/seasonal migrants. More than technology, success of Remote Voting rests in wider political acceptance of social benefits of migrant voting.
Q. What effect do you think it will have in terms of the party system in India, electoral patterns and political activity?
A: Given this historic decision of ECI, we expect that the electoral salience of interstate migrants is likely to increase in coming decades. Pre-poll survey suggests that the migrant factor makes a difference to a respondent’s voting choices because migrants are more likely to consider the performance of the Central government than State government even during State elections. So expect fluidity in electoral outcomes in future. In terms of electoral turn out, we expect rise of voter turn out in the cities. Studies have shown that large metro cities have lower turn out due to ‘missing migrant voters’. And Remote Voting may become a game changer for rising the voter turn out specially women voter turn out in elections.
In other words, Remote Voting may help loosen structural constraints on rural women’s spatial mobility and political engagement. Political parties will be incentivized to incorporate migrants into formal organizational positions and also encouraged to nominate migrants to run as candidates from migrant-dense constituencies. And national political parties like BJP and the Congress Party, and their regional cohorts are likely to strategically mobilize migrants without jeopardizing their core constituency in the local population with varying degree of success. There are also some unintended benefits of extending voting rights for migrants in terms of preferences for more ‘‘programmatic welfare politics” and more inter-ethnic tolerance in both the destination and origin places. Finally, though it is too early to predict but we admit that Remote Voting has the potential to turn India into ‘ One Nation One Voter’- leap frogging from elite-based democracy to people’s democracy.
Published - January 01, 2023 01:05 pm IST
