Balancing India’s position on the Russia-Ukraine war will be at the top of the agenda for Prime Minister Narendra Modi as he arrives by train in Kyiv on Friday (August 23, 2024) morning, for the first such high-level visit from India since the war began in 2022. While making the trip, six weeks after he visited Moscow and met with President Vladimir Putin is a part of that process, the outcomes of the visit will also be weighed carefully, say experts, given Ukraine’s “disappointments” with India’s position in the past.
In particular, India’s position on the war in Ukraine, Mr. Modi’s response to Ukraine’s requests for reconstruction and equipment supplies, as well as a possible Indian role in ending the conflict and starting a peace process will be watched most closely, both in Moscow and in Washington. PM Modi one of very few leaders to have personally visited both Kyiv and Moscow during the war ( apart from leaders of Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia, Guinea-Bissau and Hungary).
“The visit comes at a time when the Swiss peace summit failed to decisively impact the war, European nations are increasingly worried about the rising costs associated with the war, and the U.S. is preoccupied with its domestic politics,” said Happymon Jacob, professor at JNU and Director of the Council for Strategic and Defence Research. “This context presents an opportunity—if the Indian establishment chooses to pursue it—to initiate a new global conversation about bringing the warring parties to the negotiation table. India could play a small, though not insignificant, role in that process,” he added.
The optics of Mr. Modi’s Ukraine visit, expected to span about 6-8 hours in the war-hit capital of Kyiv will be significant. While in Moscow, Mr. Modi had paid respects at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, and not visited any memorial for Russian soldiers in the war, this may be more difficult in Kyiv, given the significant casualties and toll the war has taken in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had been particularly critical of PM Modi’s embrace of Mr. Putin in July, calling it a “huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts” as it came on the same day as the bombing of a children’s hospital in Kyiv, and it remains to be seen whether PM Modi will visit any of the bombed site or meet with those injured in hospital- as most other leaders visiting Ukraine in the past two years have done.
India’s abstention from all UN resolutions critical of Russia’s actions since 2022, and its decision to disassociate itself from the outcome document at the Swiss Peace conference in June was also received with some dismay in Kyiv, given PM Modi had met President Zelenskyy just prior to the conference.
“While this visit could alleviate some of the negativity in the current India-Ukraine relationship, the visit is unlikely to lead to a direct Indian mediation in the Russia-Ukraine war or raise Ukraine’s importance in India’s strategic calculus at the cost of Russia,” Mr. Jacob said.
According to Manav Sachdeva, a “goodwill ambassador” for Ukraine, appointed by President Zelenskyy to promote the “Grain from Ukraine” initiative after Russia’s blockade of wheat exports, India could still seize the “strategic opportunity”” in ensuring that Russia attends the next peace summit due to be held in November, and offering to mediate or promote dialogue.
“India can play a critical role in facilitating peace, thereby reinforcing its global influence and commitment to a stable international order,” Mr. Sachdeva, a former United Nations official who has served in several conflict areas and is now based in Delhi, told The Hindu.
He said that India’s willingness to participate in Ukraine’s reconstruction will be key to future cooperation, especially in the areas of infrastructure, technology and healthcare. Thus far, while it has provided tents and medicines to Ukraine, New Delhi has yet to approve exports of items like telecom towers, medical equipment and construction and digging machinery, that have been requested, including during Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba’s Delhi visit in March this year.
“There is no hiding the disappointment that India has yet to respond to Ukraine’s previous requests for assistance. However, the post-war reconstruction period offers a valuable opportunity for India to provide substantial support,” Mr. Sachdeva said.
The trickiest part of Mr. Modi’s agenda, however, will be to ensure that that support satisfies his hosts in Kyiv, while keeping India’s traditional and far more substantial ties with Russia on an even keel.
Published - August 22, 2024 04:51 pm IST
