Candidate selection sometimes beats logic. The Bharatiya Janata Party and the Janata Dal (United), which together won 32 of the 40 seats in Bihar in the 2009 Lok Sabha election, now, after their estrangement, have to look outside their ranks for suitable candidates. But the Rashtriya Janata Dal-Congress alliance could find enough candidates from within each, though the former could win just five seats and the latter two in the previous election.
Obviously, the poaching of leaders following the breaking of the BJP-JD(U) alliance has affected both. The JD(U) had to take more knocks in the three-cornered poaching bout, forcing Chief Minister Nitish Kumar to resort to a mid-course correction by expanding his Cabinet to fend off further erosion.
The poaching had a pattern. Both the BJP and the RJD sought to wean away Koeri leaders from the JD(U) to break the Luv-Kush (Kurmi-Koeri) axis that Mr. Kumar forged while moving away from Lalu Prasad’s party almost two decades ago. The BJP first entered into an alliance with Upendra Kushwaha’s party (Rashtriya Lok Samata Party), while the RJD snapped up Bhagwan Singh Kushwaha.
The BJP roped in Vijay Singh, husband of Industries Minister Renu Kumari Kushwaha, at a public meeting of Narendra Modi at Purnia. She duly quit the Ministry to the embarrassment of the JD(U).
She was the second woman Minister to quit the Cabinet ahead of the election. Parveen Amanullah had earlier joined the Aam Aadmi Party.
The Chief Minister inducted Lessi Singh to offset the two losses, and prevented her from quitting the party after being denied ticket. At stake was the Rajput vote bank in the State, particularly after Sushil Singh, MP, switched over from the party to the BJP.
Similarly, Mr. Kumar’s counter to save his Koeri base was by giving ticket to four candidates from this community.
In a bid to dent the JD(U)’s influence among extremely backward castes and the Mahadalit, the BJP accepted to its fold three JD(U) MPs, Jai Narain Nishad, Mangni Lal Mandal and Purnamasi Ram, belonging to these groups. The JD(U) expelled all of them. Mr. Mandal joined the RJD.
Apart from thwarting a split in the RJD’s legislative wing, Mr. Prasad released the list of party candidates first, underlining his strategic preparedness for the electoral battle.
Mr. Prasad’s losses were primarily Ram Kripal Yadav and Nawal Kishore Yadav, both leaving for the BJP, and Gulam Gaus, who joined the JD(U).
The BJP’s main target was the JD(U) stables, which could only manage to pull back a couple in return from its erstwhile partner in the tug of war. It won over BJP MLA Avanish Kumar Singh after losing former Minister Chedi Paswan and Birendra Kumar Chaudhary.
The BJP has nine new entrants among the 27 candidates it has named so far. The indications are that “outsiders” will get the ticket for the remaining three seats also.. The party is contesting 30 of the 40 seats in Bihar, sparing 10 for its allies, including the Lok Jan Shakti Party of Ram Vilas Paswan. The JD(U) has displayed similar weakness by fielding almost a dozen outsiders. The party is contesting 38 seats, leaving two to the Communist Party of India.
