After assuming office in March, the Yogi Adityanath government gifted Ayodhya, which has a dismal infrastructure, the status of a municipal corporation. Ayodhya will elect its first mayor on December 1. The fate of 651 other municipal bodies in Uttar Pradesh will also be sealed that day. The reach of the urban local body polls in the State is immense: 3.32 crore people are eligible to vote.
What are campaign issues?
The BJP is relying on showcasing development work by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Mr. Adityanath, who launched his campaign from Ayodhya. In his speeches, he talked about his government’s action in shutting down slaughterhouses while promising to open new gaushalas in every major urban centre. The results in Ayodhya as well as Gorakhpur, the home turf of Mr. Adityanath, will be the most politically reviewed, as the 25th anniversary of the Babri Masjid demolition and the hearing of the case of the disputed site in the Supreme Court follow a few days later.
The BJP’s opponents have tried to counter the narrative by highlighting issues like demonetisation, inflation, unemployment and the Goods and Services Tax (GST), apart from the negligence of municipalities over the years since they have been controlled for long by the BJP. While there is visible anger against the BJP on these issues, how much of it will translate into votes is the challenge for its opponents.
What about the Opposition?
Unlike previous years, there is a four-cornered fight among the top parties: the BJP, the Bahujan Samaj Party, the Samajwadi Party and the Congress. After their alliance flopped in the 2017 Assembly elections, the Congress and the SP are contesting the local elections separately, perhaps in a bid to consolidate individual vote bases and to mobilise cadre. The SP chief, Akhilesh Yadav, has stayed away from campaigning and delegated the task to his party workers and leaders. The SP would be at a disadvantage given that its core Yadav vote is not found in urban areas. The Congress State leadership is campaigning extensively as the party enjoys an urban base. With the BSP in the mix, things have got interesting this time, as the party fielded candidates on its symbol after a gap of two decades. But the BSP’s campaign has been largely silent, though it could be the dark horse in many seats as several Dalit castes are city-based. The Aam Aadmi Party is also contesting from several seats.
How is the BJP taking it?
As for the BJP, which rules the State with an overwhelming majority, the elections will see it defend its strongest turf where its core vote bank, including the Banias, reside. The BJP, led by Mr. Adityanath, has gone all out campaigning, showing that it takes every election seriously. “We enter every election like it is an examination,” Mr. Adityanath has said. He has been holding at least two rallies every day. The polls are the first big test for Mr. Adityanath as well as the economic policies of the Central government, such as the GST and demonetisation, which have created havoc and confusion in the informal sector, the backbone of Uttar Pradesh.
In a sign that the BJP was not taking the polls lightly, the party released a centralised manifesto for civic areas, unusual for any party. Any loss of ground for the BJP, which won 10 of 12 mayoral seats in 2012 and which has a strong urban base, would reflect badly on Mr. Adityanath, besides denting the image of the Narendra Modi government. A repeat of 2012 is the least that the BJP would hope for. Anything less would be interpreted as conceding space since the BJP is the strongest in urban areas, especially in a four-way fight.
What does it mean for 2019?
Each election has different dynamics, and voter mood changes depending on the scenario and issues. However, the psychological and political significance of a win in the urban body elections for the Lok Sabha cannot be overstated. If the BJP sweeps the municipal polls, it will get a strong footing in 2019 to consolidate its vote share and push its economic policies.
