The ruling BJP's defeat in the by-elections in Rajasthan is set to change the party's internal dynamics, with the senior leaders deliberating on the reasons for the drubbing received at two Parliamentary and one Assembly seats. The biggest impact will be visible in the role of Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje, who may now have to tread cautiously.
At a core group meeting at Ms. Raje's residence here on Friday, the BJP leaders reportedly analysed the factors responsible for shift in the party's traditional support base. While the Rajput community had announced its support to Congress much before the polling day, the impact of the Centre's decisions of demonetisation and GST implementation was described as a “worrisome trend” beyond the State's control.
With the State Assembly elections scheduled in December this year, farmers are thoroughly upset over the BJP government's failure to act upon its announcement for the agricultural loan waiver of ₹50,000 each. A committee appointed after a 13-day-long agitation in the Shekhawati region is yet to take a final decision despite its visit to Kerala and other States to study their models.
The party will have to grapple with the rebellion in its rank and file, as the rebel MLA Ghanshyam Tiwari has been creating trouble for Ms. Raje through the “Deendayal Vahini” front floated by him. Mr. Tiwari's outbursts after the by-poll results were distressful for the BJP, as he alleged that the party's central leadership was shielding a “corrupt government” in Rajasthan and questioned Ms. Raje's continuation in the office.
Among other factors responsible for BJP's defeat in Alwar, Ajmer and Mandalgarh, political observers here have highlighted the business community being hit by adverse decisions, law and order situation deteriorating in the semi-urban areas, enactment of a legislation to protect corrupt officers and Gujjars and Brahmins turning against the party over reservation and other issues.
The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh has maintained a distance from Ms. Raje-led faction of BJP since the party came to power in 2013. RSS volunteers were conspicuous by their absence during electioneering, nor did they make any serious attempt for voters' mobilisation in the three constituencies. Ms. Raje has in particular faced the RSS wrath for her temple relocation drive in Jaipur.
The Opposition Congress, on other hand, put up a united front during the election campaign, as its leaders apparently turned wise after grappling with factionalism in the past. The party leaders, including Pradesh Congress president Sachin Pilot, built up an atmosphere against the BJP's policies and programmes while cashing in on resentment among different sections of population.
At both Alwar and Ajmer Lok Sabha seats, the Congress tried to forge new alliances among different caste groups in order to create a fresh challenge before the BJP. The atmosphere was charged in Alwar in the wake of a series of incidents of lynching of dairy farmers by cow vigilantes, while the contest in Ajmer was a direct one between Congress leader Sachin Pilot and Ms. Raje.
