A month from now, Gujarat will conduct local body elections involving 323 civic and panchayat bodies. For Chief Minister Anandiben Patel, the elections taking place in the wake of the Patel agitation demanding quotas in government jobs and educational institutions, are the first major test before the State Assembly elections scheduled for December 2017.
The government’s reluctance to hold the polls immediately was evident when it promulgated an ordinance deferring the elections by three months citing the poor law and order situation that had emerged after the protracted agitation.
The government was preparing to appoint administrators in the local bodies whose five-year term was to expire in November to buy time before going to the polls.
However, the High Court, passing its judgment on a petition filed over the issue, rapped the government, the State Election Commission and quashed the ordinance, virtually forcing the State authorities to announce the poll schedule.
“The polls are very critical for the State government and also for the Chief Minister. The ruling party’s performance in the polls in six municipal corporations, 31 district panchayats, 55 municipalities and 230 block panchayats will have a major impact on her government’s direction before the next Assembly polls,” said a top Minister in the State.
He said the BJP had suffered in the local body polls in 2000 when Keshubhai Patel was the Chief Minister and the poor performance of the party in the local institutions eventually led to his unceremonious sacking and anointment of Narendra Modi as the Chief Minister in 2001.
The BJP has been ruling the State since 1998 and has a solid base across the State, especially in urban areas where the party controls all the eight municipal corporations of which six — Ahmedabad, Surat, Rajkot, Vadodara, Jamnagar and Bhavnagar — are going to the polls.
According to a BJP veteran, with 42 per cent of the urban population and the upper to lower middle class solidly behind the party, the BJP is unlikely to see any dent in its prospects in the urban bodies, but the real test will be in panchayat polls comprising rural areas.
‘Main challenge’“For us, the main challenge will be in district and block panchayats. As per our assessment, the party is likely to see electoral reverses in districts like Mehsana, Patan, Sabarkantha, Amreli, Morbi and a few other Patel-dominated pockets,” he said.
The Patidar agitation was strong in these districts and even Ministers and MLAs were not allowed in public functions by women agitators wielding rolling pins.
Drought factorBesides the Patel agitation, other factors like the semi-drought situation, economic slowdown and high prices will also have an impact on the polls.
“It’s semi-drought and farmers are in a bad shape across the State, but particularly in Saurashtra region comprising almost a dozen districts,” said a senior bureaucrat, who is part of the State level committee on drought set up by the government.
