The poll arithmetic may be the reason for Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad to “gulp drops of poison” while proposing Nitish Kumar as the chief ministerial candidate of the anti-BJP coalition in Bihar. But BJP leaders said the voting pattern could change quite drastically.
The RJD, the JD(U), the Congress and the NCP together account for 45 per cent of the vote share, against 40 per cent of the BJP-led NDA in the 2014 general election. But will the pattern occur again in the Assembly polls or will it be something different? “In politics, two and two hardly make four, but the method matters most to set the sample right,” said a BJP leader.
“It’s an alliance of oil and water which can never mix. Lalu Prasad has already given the message to his supporters that he has backed Mr. Nitish Kumar after gulping drops of poison,” senior BJP leader Sushil Modi told The Hindu.
“Lalu Prasad, with just 24 seats, will be the major gainer in the alliance.” The coming together of these leaders doesn’t mean that their votes will come to the alliance. “We’ll turn this situation to our advantage,” Mr. Modi said.
“After 10 years of Nitish Kumar’s rule, the 12 per cent Yadav votes of Lalu Prasad may go to a local BJP Yadav candidate,” said Ajay Kumar, a psephologist.
“How could the people forget those 15 years of the RJD government, opposing which Nitish Kumar came to power? It is an alliance out of fear and desperation,” another BJP leader and Union Minister Giriraj Singh said. BJP Bihar president Mangal Pandey, however, is subtler in his take on the alliance. “It’s a marriage of convenience set for a quick divorce.”
Will the faction-ridden BJP also declare its chief ministerial candidate ahead of the polls?
On Tuesday, Mr. Lalu Prasad dared the BJP to announce its chief ministerial candidate within 24 hours.
The BJP is divided between pro and anti-Sushil Modi camps; however, Union Ministers Venkaiah Naidu and Radha Mohan Singh had rooted for Mr. Modi as chief minister.
Meanwhile, the BJP has made some changes in its strategy. It will focus on two issues: the ‘return of the jungle raj’ and ‘governance gone wrong’ after Mr. Nitish Kumar parted ways with the BJP.
The anti-incumbency factor against 10 years of the Nitish Kumar government, too, may benefit the BJP, political observers reckoned. Besides, the BJP’s strong organisational set-up, the presence of the RSS in almost all districts and the resource-filled BJP government at the Centre, coupled with the Jitan Ram Manjhi and Pappu Yadav factors, would help the BJP take on the secular alliance, they said.
“Manjhi, who commands the support of 15 per cent of the Dalit votes, may make a dent in Mr. Nitish Kumar’s support among the extremely backward classes, whereas Mr. Pappu Yadav could chip away at Lalu Prasad’s Yadav votes in Kosi,” political observer Nawal Kishore Chaudhury told The Hindu .
