PANAJI: After a spell of stability for two consecutive terms, Goa seems to be heading towards political uncertainty ahead of the Assembly elections on February 4.
The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), without the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) alliance, looks vulnerable and the Opposition is equally divided.
The BJP seems shaken after Subhash Velingkar-led Goa Suraksha Manch struck an alliance with MGP and Shiv Sena, threatening to spoil the party’s prospects. The ruling BJP does not have much to show under Chief Minister Laxmikant Parsekar, besides its social security schemes.
The impact of demonetisation, the mining ban, incomplete State Regional Plan (land use plan), nationalisation of rivers, corruption, gambling and casinos, and employment issues are likely to dominate the elections. The government is also accused of frequently going back on its promises on issues like corruption in mining, and ousting casinos from the Manodovi river, among others.
Additionally, the BJP’s recent decision to induct two tainted Congress MLAs — Mauvin Godinho and Pandurang Madkaikar — has not gone well with the “clean politics” image it claims to have. The move has invited dissension from within the BJP, with Union Minister and North Goa MP Sripad Naik publicly questioning the induction of Mr. Madkaikar, whom the party labelled corrupt in the State assembly earlier.
Mr. Parrikar’s departure to New Delhi, leaving State affairs with Mr. Parsekar acted as a jolt to Catholic voters who voted for BJP in the 2012 Assembly elections relying on “Parrikar-BJP”. Mr. Parsekar has not been able to connect with the community on equal footing.
However, the Congress, which lost the 2012 elections and failed to retrieve support even marginally in the 2014 elections, continues to be in a disarray. Besides an apparent conflict from within, the party’s prospects for the upcoming elections can be jolted by Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which has undertaken a public contact exercise and had declared around 32 of its 40 candidates before the election announcement. While party’s presence can be seen more in Catholic-dominated areas of South Goa still has to catch-up in the BJP-MGP bastions in Hindu-dominated North Goa.
The AAP’s decision to choose bureaucrat-turned politician Elvis Gomes as its Chief Ministerial candidate is seen as a master-stroke by its supporters; however, a few political observers are not convinced that Mr. Gomes can take on the BJP. Moreover, they do not rule out the possibility of the AAP’s decision backfiring since the Hindu community in Goa holds a majority with a 65 per cent presence.
Political observers like former Member of Goa Law Commission, Cleofat Cutinho Almeida, feel that since the AAP could not align with non-BJP parties owing to its major plank of “opposing corruption”, it may end up helping BJP by dividing the anti-BJP votes across the State.
With small Assembly constituencies and winning margins often ranging between 500–1500 in many constituencies, division of votes in a four-way tussle between MGP-GSM-Shiv Sena alliance, the BJP, the AAP, and the still-underway Congress-Goa Forward Party alliance, could well throw up some unexpected results.
The BJP is currently banking on the Opposition’s division. However the anti-BJP sections are trying to force the Congress and GFP, which is mentored by Independent MLA Vijay Sardesai, to join hands.
The possibility of BJP emerging as a front-runner in the elections can not be ruled out, especially since the Opposition seems likely to split into independents and small groups. Unless major political parties catch up during the short electioneering period, a possibility of political uncertainty looms over Goa, as the observers feel that BJP might end up as a leading party short of majority and the regional outfits and independents might once again hold the key to the formation of government.
