The stage is set for by-elections to two Rajasthan Assembly seats – Todabhim and Salumber – this Saturday with the outcome in both constituencies being considered crucial for measuring the popularity of the Ashok Gehlot Government in the State and determining the stance of Gujjars after the Rajasthan High Court’s recent stay on reservation granted to them.
The by-polls were necessitated after Raghuveer Meena of Congress and Kirorilal Meena (Independent) resigned from their Assembly seats following election to the Lok Sabha from Udaipur and Dausa, respectively, earlier this year.
Over 2.50 lakh voters will decide the fate of 13 candidates at a total of 482 polling booths in the two constituencies. The State Election Department has made elaborate arrangements for the polling and deployed six battalions of Rajasthan Armed Constabulary and para-military forces to ensure free and fair exercise of franchise.
The electioneering in both constituencies has largely been a low-profile affair, with the Bharatiya Janata Party – faced with infighting over the Vasundhara Raje issue – starting its election campaign very late. In the Congress camp, there were brief visits by Mr. Gehlot, Union Ministers C. P. Joshi and Sachin Pilot and State Power Minister Jitendra Singh.
Gujjars hold the key to the Todabhim seat reserved for Scheduled Tribes on account of their sheer number in the region. Significantly, the stalwarts of the Meena and Gujjar communities – Kirorilal Meena and Kirori Singh Bainsla – have stayed away from the election campaign.
Mr. Meena, who came to support the ruling Congress after winning the Assembly election, distanced himself from the party in the Lok Sabha elections and won. He is stated to be in confusion during the by-poll as his support to any of the six candidates in the fray is likely to shift the Gujjars away from him.
The prospects of Congress candidate Shivdayal Meena have been dimmed by four rebels entering the race. According to political observers, his wife being the Zila Pramukh may bring some advantage to him.
Both the Congress and the BJP have made an attempt to exploit the reservation issue in their favour. Ms. Vasundhara Raje alleged at her public meeting on the last day of the campaign that Congress had “defeated the spirit” of her Government’s decision to extend 5 per cent quota to Gujjars by not defending it properly in the High Court. On the other hand, the Congress has affirmed that that the election of the ruling party’s MLA from the constituency would enable the State Government to serve the people of the region in a better way. It has also tried to project the violence in Karauli disrict, in which Todabhim falls, during the Gujjar agitation as a poll issue.
BJP candidate Ramesh Chand Meena is relying on the party’s traditional support base in the area as well as his personal relations with the influential Gujjar leaders as his strong points. The BJP supporters believe that the Congress rebels would divide the party’s votes and benefit him.
The Congress is confident of retaining the Salumber seat in Udaipur district, which is also reserved for Scheduled Tribes. The ruling party has fielded Basanti Meena, wife of Udaipur MP Mr. Raghuveer Meena, for the seat, while six other candidates are also in the race.
