There has been much hype over External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s comments that 75% of disengagement has been completed by India and China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh and the Chinese response that both sides have undertaken disengagement from four areas in the border areas.
However, the fact remains that both sides have undertaken mutually agreed and verified disengagement from five friction points while two more friction points, Demchok and Depsang, remain and there has been no progress towards their resolution in the past two years.
The widespread optimism, once again, of a possible breakthrough between the two countries in achieving further disengagement in the four-year-long stand-off, comes in the run-up to the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) Summit in October, which both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to attend. This is akin to a similar situation last year before the BRICS Summit in August.
Speaking in Geneva on September 12, Mr. Jaishankar said “roughly” about “75% of disengagement problems are sorted out”. “We still have some things to do,” he said, adding that “there is a bigger issue that both of us have brought forces close up and in that sense, there is a militarisation of the border.”
“There has been no change in the ground situation since the last disengagement two years back,” a defence official noted. Both sides have stated that after disengagement from the friction areas, they would undertake de-escalation, though the phrase “restoration of status quo ante” is being heard less and less. However, there is expectation of a possible disengagement from Demchok, though there is no clarity on any immediate Corps Commander-level talks.
‘Generally stable’
Responding to questions on National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s meeting, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning, at a regular press conference on September 13, said, “In recent years, frontline armies of the two countries have realised disengagement from four areas in the western sector of the China-India border, including the Galwan Valley. The China-India border situation is generally stable and under control.”
With disengagement undertaken from five of seven points, as stated by officials on several occasions, it is statistically around 71.5%, quite close to 75%, and also withdrawal of forces was acknowledged and verified on the ground, each time, by both sides.
Since the Corps commander-level talks in 2020, the two sides have so far undertaken disengagement from five friction points — from Galwan after the violent clash in June 2020, from the North and South Banks of Pangong Tso in February 2021, from Patrolling Point (PP) 17 in the Gogra-Hot Springs area in August 2021 and PP15 in September 2022. The last disengagement, from PP15, was a result of the understanding reached during the 16th round of Corps Commander-level military talks on July 17, 2022.
Last August, the 19th round of Corps Commander talks went on for two days and were followed up by two spectate Major General level talks towards a breakthrough in disengagement at Depsang and Demchok. While defence officials had termed that an agreement was close, it never materialised.
The last few months saw a series of high-level engagements between the two sides. On September 12, 2024 Mr. Doval met Mr. Wang Yi met on the sidelines of the BRICS’ meeting of high-level security officials in St. Petersburg which gave an opportunity to review the recent efforts towards finding an early resolution of the remaining issues along the LAC, which will “create” conditions to “stabilize and rebuild” bilateral relations. “Both sides agreed to work with urgency and redouble their efforts to realize complete disengagement in the remaining areas,” the MEA said.
The message was much tougher during a meeting with Mr. Wang Yi in July 2023, when Mr. Doval conveyed that the situation along the LAC in the western sector since 2020 had “eroded strategic trust” and the “public and political basis” of the relationship. He also emphasised the importance of continuing efforts to fully resolve the situation and restore peace and tranquillity so as to “remove impediments to normalcy” in bilateral relations.
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi met twice, in July where he highlighted the need to resolve the four-year-old military standoff at the LAC with “purpose and urgency” and again in August. There were also two meetings of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC) in a span of a month though there was no Corps Commander level talk held in between.
Meanwhile, China has been undertaking massive build-up of infrastructure, habitat and induction of new weapons and equipment along the 3,488 km-long LAC, fundamentally altering the status quo on the ground. India too has been building infrastructure and capability enhancement to match the Chinese. This is in addition to the over 50,000 troops and heavy equipment, on each side, that continue to be deployed close to the LAC in Eastern Ladakh. In this backdrop, any de-escalation to restore the status quo predating the standoff looks remote.
Published - September 18, 2024 04:57 am IST
