Opposition parties appear to be very happy with themselves and are not losing any opportunity to put up a show of their unity of purpose, which essentially is to defeat Narendra Modi. Just on Wednesday, there were two such shows — one initiated by Aam Admi Party (AAP) leader Arvind Kejriwal, and another hosted by NCP leader Sharad Pawar. By evening, there were also talks of a common minimum programme, holding out the prospects of a pre-poll, national-level alliance. Each gathering is accompanied by bombastic declarations of opposition unity, and their willingness to sacrifice individual interests for the cause of larger public good. These shows of unity are not necessarily a show of strength and could turn out to be a source of vulnerability for them. More consequentially, these repeated declarations could also have the inadvertent effect of helping Mr. Modi’s campaign. Here’s why.
There is no inter-State vote transfer involved. No party in the opposition is in a position to wield influence in more than one State, barring the Congress. BSP and the CPI (M) have minor presence in some States beyond their core areas of influence, but to speak of any national alliance between the disparate set of parties which are all confined to their respective States is an avoidable bluster. Besides alarming their opponent camp — Mr. Modi’s — this does not achieve anything.
There are State-level alliances, and there are State-level contests. In U.P., there could be meaningful sharing of votes among the BSP, SP, and the Congress; in Tamil Nadu, there could be mutual benefits for the DMK and the Congress. But don’t forget that these parties will also be against one another in several States — Congress against CPI (M) in Kerala; Congress against AAP in Delhi etc.
While there is some merit in a national alliance focused on Mr. Modi, it is also a double-edged sword. When he has the centre stage as the go-getter, which is essential for his campaign, it also exposes contradictions. For instance, Mr. Modi will find it difficult to disown or own up demonetisation. But when the Opposition ups the ante against him, he has the opportunity to play the victim and is spared of this difficulty.
While it is worth little as a national electoral alliance, repeated display of Opposition unity is worth a lot to Mr. Modi to focus his campaign on. 'All of them are ganging up against me; the corrupt against the incorruptible ; the dynasties against the lone democrat' — he has already started the pitch.
For all the above reasons, the Opposition will do well to focus on quiet State-level alliances, and think of a national alliance only after the polls.
