December was meant to be a month of festivities in Dhaka but that festive spirit was dented by the sudden announcement of U.S. sanctions for the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) , an anti-terror outfit that has received full support from Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina during her tenure. The sudden declaration of the ban on the RAB and several other individuals who are part of the security establishment has added to Ms. Hasina’s worries. Despite the initial shock and surprise, the golden jubilee celebration has gone ahead as planned with the participation of the President Ram Nath Kovind.
Bangladesh is one of the two South Asian neighbours - the other being Sri Lanka - where Indian soldiers shed blood. It is, therefore, appropriate that President Kovind emphasised the essential nature of India-Bangladesh ties beginning with the victory in the Liberation War of 1971 and noted that Bangladesh received “highest priority” from India throughout its half-century journey.
Also read: Sanctions and rights: On U.S. move to sanction RAB
This priority was especially visible in India’s ties with Ms. Hasina since she became the Prime Minister for the first time in 1996. This was further firmed up in the years following January 2009 when Bangladesh entered the ‘Hasina era’ with her Awami League establishing a near-one-party rule by subduing political opposition from the BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party) led by her arch-rival Begum Khaleda Zia.
Khaleda Zia’s health
Over the last decade, the BNP has lost the political edge that it once enjoyed. Yet it maintains a large cadre base and has articulate leaders like Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir. Despite handicaps, it is likely to pose a strong challenge to Sheikh Hasina in the coming days because of the present health condition of Ms. Zia, who led her party singlehandedly. She fell ill earlier this year with COVID-19. The post-COVID-19 complications required proper treatment that is not available in Bangladesh. Her party sought that she be allowed to travel abroad but Ms. Hasina’s government did not grant her permission to free her from home detention.
Rumours have been swirling in Dhaka’s political circles about the grave condition of Ms. Zia’s health. Further deterioration of her health is most likely to have a political and security implication that can impact the street-level politics of the volatile country, which has been rocked by riots repeatedly in the past and most recently in October, when Hindus were targeted during the Durga puja celebrations.
Rohingya crisis
A new phase of Sheikh Hasina’s political journey began in September 2017, when over a million Rohingya refugees began to enter the country through the forested border with Myanmar where the military had begun a deadly campaign against the community that had been based in the Rakhine province for centuries. Bangladesh’s repeated requests to repatriate the refugees to Rakhine has not been addressed by any of the international stakeholders. In this backdrop of heightened tension in Myanmar, a section of decision-makers in Dhaka began to argue that Bangladesh should be prepared to take on the military junta of Myanmar just in case the junta decides to take more reckless action against its own people, escalating the Rohingya crisis further.
The dark prognosis about the junta was further strengthened after the coup of February 1 that ended Myanmar’s experiment with democracy, creating waves of human migration from the country to the neighbouring areas. The purchase of weapons worth nearly $47 million indicated that Bangladesh too is preparing for the unthinkable situation with Myanmar. This coupled with the country’s recent graduation from the LDC to Middle Income Country, made possible with relative political stability under Ms. Hasina’s leadership, and a remittance driven economy has triggered a big power rivalry over the latest success story of South Asia.
Quad initiative
China, which has been active in building some of the remarkable infrastructure projects like the bridge over the Padma river and the international convention centre in Dhaka is in the focus of the Quad initiative of the Indo-Pacific block consisting of the U.S., Japan, India and Australia. During the visit to Dhaka this week, Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla highlighted that the idea of Quad is to “work with other countries in the Indo-Pacific in a positive constructive cooperative manner” to attain free, open Indo-Pacific.
“The nature of Quad itself is such that we want to work with other countries in partnership and in that partnership Bangladesh is an important partner,” he stated, signalling the willingness to engage Bangladesh in the Indo-Pacific vision.
The statement from the Foreign Secretary made it clear that the Quad is for four countries but the grouping is looking for cooperative partners. The message from both Washington DC and also the Indian capital is increasingly clear that Bangladesh may have to do something visible to balance its growing ties with China and with the partners in the Indo-Pacific region. This is, however, one part of the problem given that Ms. Hasina’s domestic sphere also will require a great deal of caution and patience to maintain law and order in the face of possibly grave developments.
