Monsoon unlikely to pick up until July

A scene of monsoon rain downpour in Bhubaneswar.   | Photo Credit: BISWARANJAN ROUT

Monsoon rainfall that was 40% above normal for the month until June 18, has reduced to a trickle over the previous week. The latest update from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) computes the monthly rainfall until June 24 to be just 26% of the normal and there is unlikely to be a significant boost until the first week of July.

As of Thursday, India had received 152 mm of rainfall as opposed to the normal 121.2 mm.

Monsoon unlikely to pick up until July

On Tuesday the IMD said India is in the grip of a “weak monsoon spell.” The southwest monsoon has so far covered most parts of the country except parts of the northwest — Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana and Punjab. Unusually, for this period, the monsoon has progressed to eastern, central and adjoining northwest India earlier than normal by 7-10 days. However, further progress over the remaining parts of country is unlikely for the last week of June, the IMD noted.

All the broad subdivisions have posted above normal rainfall so far. east and northeast India has posted 8% extra, northwest India 58%, central India 46% and the southern Peninsula 15%, according to data as of June 23.

Rainfall activity is likely to increase over most parts of the country after the first week of July especially in peninsular and central India, that is also part of India's core agricultural zone and dependent on monsoon rain for irrigation.

“Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is also likely over most parts of northeast and adjoining east India during most days of the week. (July 1-7),” the agency said based on weather models that assess the development of the monsoon system over the fortnight.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), on June 1, said it expects more rain in the monsoon months of June-September than its previous estimate in April. Monsoon rains were likely to be 101% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 88 cm. On April 16, it said it monsoons rain would be 98% of the LPA. In the agency's parlance this still constitutes ‘normal’ rainfall which is anywhere from 96-104% of the LPA.

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Printable version | Jul 28, 2021 7:54:43 PM |

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