Kerala has received intermittent to good pre-monsoon showers over the past week as the southwest monsoon nears the Indian peninsula. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that conditions are favourable for the monsoon to hit Kerala by May 30, 2017.
On April 18, 2017, in its first forecast, the IMD pegged this year’s monsoon rain at 96% of the 50-year average of 89 cm for the four-month season from June to September. It also indicated that the threat to the monsoon from El Nino may have receded. However, it is not clear yet if this will lead to improved rainfall. The IMD’s estimate of 96% falls at the bottom edge of hat it considers ‘normal’ monsoon rain. The IMD will update its numbers in June when the picture is likely to get clearer.