May 30, 2017: When chasing the monsoon begins in Kerala

In its first forecast on April 18, 2017, the IMD pegged this year’s monsoon at 96% for the four-month season from June to September.

A man rides his bicycle as rain pounded Kochi on Friday night. Kerala has received widespread summer showers over the past couple of days.

Kerala has received intermittent to good pre-monsoon showers over the past week as the southwest monsoon nears the Indian peninsula. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that conditions are favourable for the monsoon to hit Kerala by May 30, 2017.

Plantation workers covered their head with plastic sheets as they walk in the pre-monsoon rain in Munnar. The IMD has forecast that the southwest monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala around May 30.

 

On April 18, 2017, in its first forecast, the IMD pegged this year’s monsoon rain at 96% of the 50-year average of 89 cm for the four-month season from June to September. It also indicated that the threat to the monsoon from El Nino may have receded. However, it is not clear yet if this will lead to improved rainfall. The IMD’s estimate of 96% falls at the bottom edge of hat it considers ‘normal’ monsoon rain. The IMD will update its numbers in June when the picture is likely to get clearer.