The southwest monsoon is likely to hit the Kerala coast on May 30, two days before its scheduled arrival in India even as the country stares at the possibility of below normal rains for a second consecutive year.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday that conditions are becoming ‘favourable’ for advancement of the monsoon over the Andaman Sea and adjoining areas during the next three to four days.
El Nino effect
The IMD has already predicted that India is likely to witness a “below normal” monsoon season for a second consecutive year. It has partly blamed the El Nino phenomenon for the low forecast.
“The southwest monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala on May 30 with a model error of 4 days. Advance of the southwest monsoon over the Andaman Sea normally takes place around May 20 with a standard deviation of about one week. During the last few days, enhanced convection and increased rainfall activity have been observed over the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea.
“The cross-equatorial flow is likely to strengthen and deepen over the area. As such, conditions are becoming favourable for advance of the southwest monsoon over the Andaman Sea and adjoining sea areas during the next three-four days,” the IMD said in a statement.
Unlike last year, when it was delayed by four days, the monsoon will this year hit Kerala on May 30, the event denoting the official onset of the wet season in the country.
If the monsoon reaches Kerala on May 30, it will be the seventh time in 10 years when the State witnesses the rains arriving earlier than the scheduled date. — PTI
The IMD has already predicted that India is likely to witness a ‘below normal’ monsoon season.
