The Chengannur byelection result has delivered a major setback to the United Democratic Front (UDF), but more than the defeat, Left Democratic Front candidate Saji Cherian’s victory margin appears to have flummoxed senior leaders of the Opposition coalition.
Even before the byelection was announced, it was quite clear that undercurrents were at play at Chengannur and each of the three main players had upped their stakes for a victory here.
The UDF had hoped to ride what it considered the wave of anti-government sentiments and badly wanted a victory in order to vindicate several of the agitations it had undertaken in recent times.
But the undercurrents have turned out to be tectonic movements in Kerala politics that would leave a lasting impact on the UDF, especially the Congress party.
The UDF leaders, who sensed this, gulped their egos to try and patch up with the Kerala Congress (M) and its leader K.M. Mani.
But post-election, it appears that such moves were too late in the day and did not sway the election outcome.
Christian strongholds
Another major concern that the Chengannur results posed for the UDF is the manner in which the CPI(M) has been politically inching in constituencies perceived to be Congress-UDF strongholds, with its epicentre in Central Travancore constituencies, dominated by various Christian denominations.
The CPI(M)’s experiments began in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, firmed up in 2016 Assembly elections and has been validated in the Chengannur byelection, gradually appealing to various Christian denominations that have pockets of influence seizable enough to sway election results.
The LDF also had the advantage of being in power because of which several social groups felt it better to “vote for the candidate who will help them.”
The Chengannur results also exposed the organisational shortcomings of the Congress, which has not conducted an evaluation of its severe drubbing in the 2016 Assembly elections. The Congress leadership has been in an ad hoc mode for the last two years and nothing much has been done to prevent the drift.
This factor too could have played out in Chengannur, despite the rare show of unity by the coalition leaders.
