With creditable electoral victories in the last Lok Sabha elections, three Assembly byelections and a series of local body bypolls, the Congress party considers itself in a comfortable position in State politics now. Busy with its organisational elections — which would hopefully usher in a refreshed and rejuvenated party apparatus — the party is yet to get into the election mode, either for the local body elections due in September-October or for the Assembly elections a few months later.
The road to organisational elections has not been smooth for the party so far: it has been ensnared in dormant factional politics — something which the Congressmen can hardly live without. The party leadership is keen to take the road to consensus, but it is not yet clear whether this would lead to status quo and what would be its organisational fallout.
“We are comfortably placed, but we are not complacent,” says Ramesh Chennithala, Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee president. The United Democratic Front and the Congress have done exceptionally well in the various local body byelections held in the last one year, capturing Left Democratic Front's sitting seats, he says, attributing the people's verdict to the unpopularity of the LDF government and its policies.
Secular platform
The Congress is not unduly worried about the new political line the Communist Party of India (Marxist) seems to have adopted. According to the party's perception, the CPI(M) has been forced to shift gear because its tryst with minority communalism during the last decade had stopped paying dividends. “The CPI(M) hobnobbed with fringe fundamentalist minority groups and is responsible for the growth of communalism. The Congress has not deviated from its secular platform. At the end of the fourth year of LDF rule in the State, we can rightly claim to be holding the secular platform,” Mr. Chennithala asserts. The people of Kerala are astute enough to evaluate the reasons for the exodus from the LDF. The writing on the wall that the LDF does not have popular support is very clear, Mr. Chennithala adds.
The Congress and the UDF found their feet in the Lok Sabha elections held last year by recapturing the minority votes that had abandoned the coalition in the 2004 Lok Sabha and 2006 Assembly elections. Further, it has consolidated its position in the three Assembly byelections held subsequently. The way forward for the Congress would depend on how well it manages its organisational elections. If it settles issues and restores some order, it would be in a better position to confront issues thrown up by the merger of the two Kerala Congress parties.
UDF expansion
In the last one year, the UDF has admitted a faction of the Janata Dal(Secular) to its fold. The Indian National League is all set to have electoral understanding with the Indian Union Muslim League, a UDF coalition partner, at least for the local body elections. The strategy is to ensure the accretion of anti-LDF parties and groups, something which the Congress holds up to attest to the LDF's unpopularity.
Congress leaders would have to work doubly hard to keep the ambitions of the Kerala Congress(M) leader K.M. Mani and his party in check. As the major partner in the UDF, the Congress has the responsibility to ensure that the coalition does not wilt under conflicting demands. The coming local body elections would be a litmus test for the UDF as it would bring out the relative strengths of the coalition partners. This could perhaps mark the onset of haggling for Assembly seats and come up with a formula that would appeal to various sections of the people. A lot would depend on how the UDF leadership navigates through this squally political weather.
