The Communist Party of India (Marxist) has begun taking the first tentative steps towards the 2011 Assembly elections giving preliminary hints about the political plank on which it would fight the admittedly difficult elections.
The CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) had begun its fourth year in office without much hope of making the grade two years from then, but it has since benefited somewhat from the confusion in the Opposition ranks, particularly after the Kerala Congress(J) decided to ride piggyback on the rival Kerala Congress(M) into the United Democratic Front camp and the turbulence evident within the Congress.
The exit of the KC(J) had taken the CPI(M) by surprise and it is aware of the loss in ground support that the KC(J) move has brought about. The relationship between the CPI(M) and the KC(J) had been remaining strained for quite sometime now. Therefore, the CPI(M) was not too perturbed by the sudden end to the unhappy marriage. What is better, it is currently seeing in the break up of the two-decades-old relationship the fragile chance to explore new electoral possibilities. The party's waning enthusiasm to get the P.C. Thomas faction of the Kerala Congress into the alliance could be read with this new realisation.
INL's exit
If the break-up with the KC(J) was thrust upon it, the CPI(M) was relatively proactive in its decision not to have formal ties with the Indian National League (INL), thereby forcing the INL to open a dialogue with the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) for a possible merger.
Although it has time and again gone in for tactical alliances with political outfits with clear communal underpinnings in the past, the CPI(M) is still wedded to its 1980s policy decision to maintain equidistance from both majority and minority communalism.
That being the case, it could not possibly take the INL as an ally in the LDF.
The INL did not make an issue of it so far because it was happy with the arrangement which gave it at least one surrogate seat in every Assembly election and positions at the lower level and in boards and corporations.
In the 2006 elections, it had also got to win one Assembly seat. But its patience had been running out after 14 years of such cohabitation. Its decision to snap ties with the LDF now could be attributed to its fears about remaining in ties with an LDF that is widely seen as staring at a major electoral setback less than a year from now.
The two developments, which have come almost simultaneously and against the backdrop of the four-year-old tussle between the CPI(M) and the Church over admissions and fee structure in private self-financing colleges, have given the CPI(M) leadership the opportunity to try and see if it can rediscover the magical touch of 1987.
That is easier said than done given the complexities that have come about in the very idea of communalism post-Babri Masjid demolition, Gujarat riots and developments in the international arena over two decades.
The threat perceptions of the Church may have undergone major changes with the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance returning to power at the Centre, but the Muslims are still not ready to lower their guard.
Polit Bureau statement
The CPI(M) is aware of the need for a nuanced response to this complex political reality, but does not want to burn its fingers like it did when it tried to take the Abdul Nasir Maudany-led People's Democratic Party on board during the last Lok Sabha elections. The carefully worded statement of the Polit Bureau on Sunday on the mobilisation of communal and caste forces against the CPI(M) and the LDF government clearly suggests this. Chief Minister V.S. Achuthanandan and CPI(M) State secretary Pinarayi Vijayan had revealed their mind on the issue over the last few weeks.
What the Polit Bureau statement possibly tries to do is to take that thinking further with what looks like a longer term perspective.
The statement reads as follows: ‘‘The Polit Bureau noted that various communal and caste forces are being mobilized against the CPI(M) and the LDF government. These forces are sought to be consolidated behind the Congress-led UDF. The increasing intervention of religious and communal bodies in politics does not augur well for the secular polity in Kerala. The CPI(M) will conduct a vigorous campaign against the interference of sectarian and communal forces in the political affairs of the State.'' It is clearly a statement of intent, but one that takes care not to castigate any particular community. The CPI(M) and the LDF must now be looking at a game that is opening up bit by bit and should be hoping to capitalise on it, of course with some more positive focus on its badly publicised but substantive governance record.
