The southwest monsoon, which has just entered Karnataka, is expected to be marginally better for the agricultural sector in the State in terms of quantum of rain compared with the previous year, according to experts.
“The forecast by the Indian Meteorological Department shows that the country as a whole will be affected by the El Nino effect by about 5 per cent. But microanalysis at the level of each of the three climatic subdivisions of Karnataka indicates that the prospects of agriculture is unlikely to be hit in the State,” M.B. Raje Gowda, professor of Agro Meteorology and Registrar of the University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore, has said.
According to the climatic sub-divisional analysis, south interior Karnataka is likely to get “positive normal” monsoon, which means 3 to 4 per cent more rainfall than the normal figures, he said. The south interior Karnataka subdivision includes the districts of Bangalore, Mysore, Shimoga, Hassan, Chikmagalur, Mandya, Chamarajanagar, Ramanagaram and Davangere.
Southwest monsoon for north interior Karnataka is likely to be normal, that is plus or minus 5 per cent of the total 100 per cent, according to Dr. Gowda.
7 per cent shortage
The forecast indicates a 7 per cent deficiency in rainfall for the coastal subdivision. But considering the fact that the coastal subdivision yields high rainfall of 3,000 to 3,500 mm, a 7 per cent shortage, amounting to 200 mm, may not negatively impact the agricultural sector, Dr. Gowda observed. The forecast for the State as a whole indicates 5 per cent deficiency in the monsoon against 7 per cent witnessed during the previous year, he said.
With the analysis showing that the quantum of Southwest monsoon rains is not going to be a worry for agriculture, weather experts are now watching for the “distribution of monsoon” as that is also a crucial factor impacting agriculture. Dr. Gowda said the distribution of monsoon may also be normal this time if the pattern of pre-monsoon showers was any indication.
The performance of the southwest monsoon is crucial for the State’s agricultural sector as it accounts for 69 per cent of the calendar year’s rainfall.
10 days to cover State Though monsoon has entered Karnataka, it may take about 10 days for it to cover the entire State, Dr. Gowda said. According to him, the interior and northern parts of Karnataka will get high precipitation by the first or second week of July, setting the stage for sowing.
