In Pavagada Assembly seat, the Janata Dal (Secular) and the Congress polled nearly 90% of all votes cast in the 2018 elections. On paper, it should have been a sweep for their Chitradurga parliamentary constituency. However, after polling on April 18, Pavagada registered the biggest decline in voting, losing about 17 percentage points in turnout compared to last year.
On the other side of the State, Karwar Assembly constituency — which was won by the Bharatiya Janata Party despite the alliance having 60% of the votes — saw near Assembly-turnout level voting while recording an incredible 10 percentage points increase compared to 2014 elections.
The Congress workers believe that in Pavagada, the JD(S) — which lost the 2018 election by just 300 votes — did not participate in campaigning; while in Karwar, a JD(S) worker said the coordination between the two parties was near-perfect owing to a desire to end the two-decade term of the BJP’s Anantkumar Hegde. It is a commonly held perception that the hardcore JD(S) voters outside South Karnataka are not inclined to vote in the Lok Sabha elections. However, the State’s record turnout this time seems to have impressive increases in places where the JD(S) has a significant presence.
Parliamentary seats
In seven parliamentary seats where the JD(S) candidates were fielded, the turnout is 74.5%, an increase of 4.19 percentage points over the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. In these constituencies, the JD(S) is a significant player with nearly 30% of the vote share in the 2018 Assembly polls. While the turnout increase has been across Assembly segments, including those held by the BJP and the Congress, it is the JD(S)-held seats that have seen a staggering 5.72 percentage point increase in voting.
In contrast, in 21 seats where the Congress has fielded candidates, the turnout is 66.9%, or an increase of just 0.67 percentage points. Here, the JD(S) has 18 MLAs, but the turnout in these places has increased by just 0.44 percentage points when compared to the turnouts in the same set of seats in the 2014 polls.
JD(S) strongholds
This pattern is seen even in seats held by the JD(S) MLAs currently. In 104 seats where the BJP MLAs have won, turnout has increased by 1.21 percentage points; Congress-held seats are up by 1.06 percentage points. In 37 JD(S) seats, the increase in turnout is 2.95 percentage points to 73.04%. This is most apparent in Mandya where a high-stakes contest saw an incredible 8% surge in voting this time around. Another way of looking at the JD(S) strongholds is to gauge turnouts in Assembly segments where it had polled more than 20,000 votes ( a significant presence in a seat) in the 2018 Assembly polls.
Last year, the JD(S) had a “significant presence” in 99 constituencies. Here, turnout has increased by 2.43 percentage points (when compared to turnout in 2014 in seats where the JD(S) had polled more than 20,000 votes in 2013 elections). In the rest of the seats where the JD(S) has little influence, the turnout has virtually stagnated.
Sandeep Shastri, a political scientist with political research organisation Lokniti, says the 2019 elections must be viewed through various factors in each constituency. In Shivamogga, both parties have managed to mobilise voters, while in Tumakuru, H.D. Deve Gowda’s entry may have spurred workers to vote in large numbers.
“The 2014 election was a special one which saw increase in voting owing to the Modi wave. The increase this time suggests that there has been better voter mobilisation by the alliance and the BJP in each seat. It will be a close fight in most seats,” he says.
