Karnataka

State’s adult population can be fully vaccinated by May 2022

If the State is to vaccinate its adult population by December 2021, its demand for 1.5 crore doses should be met soon.  

Even though vaccination is considered to play a crucial role in blunting the feared third wave of COVID-19, Karnataka can hope to fully vaccinate its adult population only by mid-May 2022 at the present pace of vaccination that is hovering around 65 lakh per month or 2.1 lakh doses per day.

However, by stepping up the vaccination drive to 3.3 lakh doses per day, if the State receives one crore doses per month as promised by the Centre, the target can be achieved by the first week of February, 2022. Karnataka is unlikely to fully vaccinate its adult population before the year end if the Centre does not accept the State’s demand for 1.5 crore doses per month, which will facilitate administering 5 lakh doses per day.

Karnataka’s population above 18 years stood at 4.6 crore against a total population of 6.75 crore as on May, 2020, according to Aadhaar enrolment data shared by State government’s Centre for E-Governance.

Out of the 9.2 crore doses required to fully vaccinate 4.6 crore adult population at the rate of two doses each, Karnataka, as per the media bulletin by Department of Health and Family Welfare, had administered a total of 3.37 crore doses of vaccine by 3.30 p.m. on August 11, including 2.61 crore first doses and 0.75 crore second doses.

To administer the remaining 5.83 doses to fully vaccinate the adult population of Karnataka, the State will require another 277 days at the present rate of 2.1 lakh doses per day or mid May (May 16) 2022, 176 days if vaccination is stepped up to 3.33 lakh per day or first week of February (Feb 4) 2022.

If the State is to fully vaccinate its adult population before the end of December 2021, as per the Government of India’s plans, Karnataka’s demand for 1.5 crore doses should be met soon and facilitate administering 5 lakh doses per day. It would take around 117 days from now or till December 7, 2021, to reach the target if 5 lakh doses are administered every day, according to Rama Mohan, member of Jeevan Raksha, an initiative that is studying COVID-19 trends across the country.

So far

Till August 11, a total of 2.99 crore people in Karnataka had been vaccinated with at least a single dose. While 2.61 crore people had received the first dose, only about 38 lakh persons had been administered both the doses.

The 0.75 crore second doses administered in the State translate to about 38 lakh fully vaccinated people in the State, accounting for roughly 12.1% of the State’s adult population, according to sources in the Department of Health and Family Welfare.

More than 1.61 crore of the 4.6 crore eligible adult population in Karnataka has not received even a single dose.

‘Increase in vaccination rate key’

With the extent of vaccination considered to be one of the key factors in determining how the third wave will play out, the ‘Ensemble Forecast of COVID-19 in Karnataka for 2021-22’ prepared by Department of Computational and Data Sciences, Indian Institute of Sciences, Bengaluru, points out that an increase in vaccination rate will reduce the peak active caseload then.

Sashikumaar Ganesan, Chairperson of the department, said a reduction in the peak active caseload would consequently lead to a decrease in hospitalisation, ICU admission and requirement of oxygen.

The ensemble forecast built last month by aggregating a total of 972 different scenarios and models has also pointed out the vaccination rate should be doubled to reduce the probability of Wave 3.


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Printable version | Dec 6, 2021 12:08:10 PM | https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/karnataka/states-adult-population-can-be-fully-vaccinated-by-may-2022/article35906139.ece

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