The continued use of 2011 Census data by the State COVID-19 War Room to analyse various aspects of the pandemic has raised questions over the relevance of the population figures gathered almost a decade ago, particularly while calculating crucial indicators such as deaths per million (DPM) and tests per million (TPM
While DPM is considered a key barometer to assess the mortality in a community owing to the pandemic, TPM is regarded as an important indicator to track the spread of the virus and reduce its transmission.
The population of Bengaluru was 96.2 lakh as per the 2011 Census data. However, the 2019 Revision of World Population Prospects put out by United Nations’ Department of Economic and Social Affairs estimated the population of Bengaluru Urban to be 1.23 crore. But, the State COVID-19 War Room considers the 2011 Census data for its analysis.
Decade-old data
Questioning the wisdom behind sticking to almost a decade-old data, Jeevan Raksha, an initiative of management consulting firm Proxima to provide analytical insights into the emerging pattern of COVID-19, stated that the outcome of the analysis would be more “realistic” when calculated with updated population estimates.
While the DPM in Bengaluru, according to the war room data, was 211.7 on September 2, the DPM, if calculated as per the population data provided by the U.N., will be only 165.3. By September 2, a total of 2,307 deaths in Bengaluru Urban had been attributed to COVID-19.
Similarly, the DPM provided for different districts of the State will also appear exaggerated when calculated on the basis of the 2011 Census data. Nevertheless, the number of deaths owing to COVID-19 in Karnataka went up 2.3 times during August — from 2,314 on August 1 to 5,702 on August 31. Yet, the rate of mortality in the State dipped marginally from 1.86 to 1.66 during the month.
Tests per million
A similar discrepancy in figures is expected to show when the number of COVID-19 tests per million (TPM) is calculated.
The total number of tests conducted in Bengaluru Urban till August 30 was 8,42,277. If the 2011 Census is considered to calculate the tests per million, TPM works out to 87,737. But, the figure drops to just 68,477 when the population data for Bengaluru Urban provided by the U.N. is considered.
Out of the three million COVID-19 tests carried out in Karnataka so far, 2.3 million, accounting for 53% of the total tests, were conducted only in August, said Mysore Sanjeev, convener of Jeevan Raksha project.
During the crucial period between April and June, Karnataka could test only 21% of the total tests. “The delayed and low testing during the crucial period could have contributed towards the spread of COVID-19 across the State,” he said.
Karnataka’s Test Positivity Rate (TPR) stood at 11.5%, which is the second highest among the mega States in India after Maharashtra’s 19% whereas India’s TPR stood at 7.8%.
“This is one of the critical factors, which contributed for a sharp increase in deaths in various districts of the State,” Mr. Sanjeev said.
He said their study finds seven districts of Karnataka among the 25 in India having the highest TPR. Mysuru, with a TPR of 22%, is ranked seventh in the country. Also, in non-mega cities outside Maharashtra, Mysuru, with 444 deaths, is the second highest after Surat’s 625, the study said.
“It is sad to see the condition of Mysuru, which was the first district in the State to become free of COVID-19 free having nearly 100 cases in March–April. Due to poor surveillance during the crucial period, Mysuru has today become the seventh most severely COVID-19 spread districts in India,” Mr. Sanjeev said.
