A severe deficit in rainfall in the Cauvery catchment areas of Karnataka could now lead to another crisis year for farmers in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
What is the problem?
At a deficit of 34% compared to “normal monsoon” rainfall, Indian Meteorological Department data show that the south interior Karnataka region, which encompasses the Cauvery catchment, is currently witnessing the worst monsoon in the country. In Tamil Nadu, the shortfall is 20%; and there’s a 30% deficit in Kerala. Earlier this week, four major reservoirs in the Karnataka side of the Cauvery basin had a storage of just 43.18 tmcft (thousand million cubic feet). This is barely 40% of total capacity, and is even lesser than the 51 tmcft recorded last year (a drought year).
In Mettur dam in Tamil Nadu, the biggest reservoir along the river, water storage was 10.35 tmcft or barely 10% of total capacity.
Experts say the same conditions which saw record rainfall in Gujarat and Rajasthan in July caused the Cauvery deficit. Off-shore troughs or depressions (areas of low pressure) in the southern Arabian Sea or the southern Bay of Bengal allow for accumulation of south- west monsoon clouds in south India. This year, however, the depressions were off the coast of Maharashtra and Gujarat, and rain-bearing monsoon too migrated there.
Locally, other factors may have played a role in reducing reservoir levels. According to environmentalists, large-scale deforestation in the Western Ghats, continued sand mining and the inability to revive tributaries have led to declining health of the catchment area and river capacity. Adding to this is the heavy dependence on the Cauvery for water-intensive crops such as sugarcane and paddy, which dominate the agrarian landscape, and the proliferation of borewells, which have had an impact on surface run-off.
What is the fallout?
Any deficit in the Cauvery’s source has a cascading effect through the basin, leading to agrarian distress. The crisis has deepened as the region is still reeling from three consecutive years of drought. There has been a spate of farmer suicides, assurances of loan waivers, and protests including those by Tamil Nadu farmers in Delhi.
This year, Karnataka has already stated that water will not be released for Kharif crop sowing. Instead, preference has been given to drinking water needs, estimated to be 30 tmcft (more than half of it for Bengaluru city alone) till the next monsoon. With lower water release from Karnataka, the main samba crop in Tamil Nadu will be under threat. Last year, Tamil Nadu, which is in the grip of an unprecedented drought, had witnessed a 41% dip in sowing area.
What next?
Preparations for drought have started, with the Karnataka government drawing up a contentious ₹30 crore plan for cloud seeding (spraying clouds with silver iodide to amass rain-bearing clouds).
However, many experts say this will do little to alleviate the situation.
For now, all eyes are on the Supreme Court which is hearing appeals by Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala challenging the 2007 Cauvery Water Disputes Tribunal award. The share of Cauvery had been determined as 270 tmcft to Karnataka and 419 tmcft to Tamil Nadu, among others.
This year, conflict over water-sharing is bound to rise again. In June and July, Karnataka was to release 44 tmcft to abide by the award. So far, just 7 tmcft has been released.
With elections looming in the State, water release is a politically-sensitive issue. Last year, Tamil Nadu-registered vehicles were set on fire in Bengaluru and one person was killed after the Supreme Court order to release water.
Moreover, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah hails from the Cauvery belt and it is here that the Congress has to perform well if it hopes to return to power in the State; the BJP is in a bind as the NDA-led Centre cannot be seen as favouring either of the States.
