Karnataka

Coronavirus | Don’t speculate on numbers, focus on cutting transmission, says doctors

MUMBAI, 10/12/2015: Devi Shetty, Chairman, Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd., addressing a press conference to announce the company's initial public offer in Mumbai on December 10, 2015.
Photo: Paul Noronha

MUMBAI, 10/12/2015: Devi Shetty, Chairman, Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd., addressing a press conference to announce the company's initial public offer in Mumbai on December 10, 2015. Photo: Paul Noronha   | Photo Credit: PAUL NORONHA

Doctors hope preventive measures will have positive impact on containing virus

While Deputy Chief Minister C.N. Ashwath Narayan on Tuesday said that the State should brace for possible one lakh COVID-19 cases, some pulmonologists and experts in respiratory diseases have said that the need of the hour is to cut transmission and not create panic.

‘Critical week’

One well-known pulmonologist, requesting anonymity, said he was not sure on what basis the estimated numbers were being arrived at. “The next one week is critical for us and our focus should be on cutting transmission and not creating panic,” said a senior government doctor, who is an expert in communicable diseases. “If we pass this month without a surge in numbers, we are confident Karnataka will be able to contain the spread of the infection in the coming days. This is possible if people follow strict home quarantine,” he said.

Tarun Bhatnagar, scientist at Indian Council of Medical Research, said that there is no data yet to make the projections. “But as India started preventive measures at an early stage and has stepped up surveillance, we hope there will be a positive impact on containing the infection,” he said.

Dr. Bhatnagar is one of the authors of the paper titled ‘Prudent public health intervention strategies to control coronavirus disease 2019 transmission in India: A mathemathical model-based approach”, which was published in the Indian Journal of Medical Research early this month.

However, Devi Prasad Shetty, chairman of Narayana Health, who cautioned that over 80,000 persons are likely to be infected in Karnataka, told The Hindu that the prediction was based on how the virus behaved in Italy. “In a State like Karnataka with a population of over 6.5 crore, we need to plan for the worst. My projection may lead to panic, but it is important for us to make estimates and preparations for the worst-possible scenario,” he said. “I may be wrong and I wish I am. But what if I am right? The State government is planning in the right direction,” he added. Pointing out that countries like Iran, France, Germany, and Spain took long to contain the infection, he said India clamped down on visitors early on.

Why you should pay for quality journalism - Click to know more

Related Topics
Recommended for you
This article is closed for comments.
Please Email the Editor

Printable version | Mar 30, 2020 12:40:20 PM | https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/karnataka/dont-speculate-on-numbers-focus-on-cutting-transmission/article31156725.ece

Next Story