After the Supreme Court verdict that upheld the disqualification of 17 Karnataka Congress-JDS MLAs but allowed them to contest the December 5 bypolls , all political parties in the State have hit the ground running. The court decision, ending nearly three months of uncertainty, came two days after the election code of conduct kicked in and the window to file nominations opened.
In less than a month’s time, when the results of the bypolls for the 15 Assembly constituencies are announced on December 9, the State could see political realignments if the outcome is adverse for the ruling BJP.
Stakes are high for all the political parties in fray, especially the BJP, which now has a wafer-thin majority of 105 seats in a truncated house of 207 (out of a total strength of 224), caused by the resignations of the 17 disqualified MLAs, and an Independent supporting its government. Sixteen of the 17 MLAs joined the BJP the day after the court verdict and 13 have now been fielded by the party.
The BJP has to secure a minimum of six seats to pass the half-way mark in the House that will have a strength of 222. Bypolls to two constituencies have not been declared owing to election-related cases in the court.
While the BJP camp exudes confidence of putting up a good performance in the bypolls, with Chief Minister B.S. Yediyurappa claiming to win 12 seats, the ground reality could offer different challenges to the leadership. In many constituencies, particularly Hoskote and Kagwad , local BJP leaders have turned the tables by refusing to accept the candidature of the disqualified legislators who have now joined the BJP. The sudden entry of disqualified legislators, against whom they have fought earlier, has put their political career in jeopardy. The ticket contenders left unhappy can cause a dent to the party’s strategies.
The results will also have a bearing on the leadership of Mr. Yediyurappa, who may find the going within the party tough if the BJP fails to have a simple majority after the bypolls. He is already under pressure from the central leadership and has seen his powers curtailed, despite his public pronouncements that the central leaders have given him a free hand.
The threat of further resignations by the Congress and JD(S) legislators is also seen as a possibility. This also comes in the midst of speculation over probable realignment of political forces if the BJP fails to win a minimum of six seats. Unilateral announcement by the JD(S) that it would prevent the collapse of the government has indicated new political churning post the bypoll results. The JD(S) move is being seen in the light of more of its legislators getting ready to leave, raising doubts about the relevance of the party and its very existence.
For the Congress, a good show in the bypolls could only be a moral consolation after having lost 14 members to “ Operation Kamala ” as even an improved number is unlikely to bring any major changes, unless there is a realignment with the JD(S).
It is in this context that Leader of the Opposition Siddaramaiah, who also claims the Congress will win 12 seats, has predicted the collapse of the BJP government and mid-term polls. This elections will also be crucial for him to consolidate his position in the party as he has been largely blamed for the collapse of the coalition, and many senior leaders who see themselves as “original Congressmen” were opposed to the party giving him the post of both CLP leader and Leader of the Opposition.
