The post poll situation in Uttar Pradesh may well force today's enemies to seek each other's company in a cosy embrace as the political wisdom across parties is that the State is likely to throw up a fractured verdict.
No one – not party leaders and not journalists who have recently visited the State — seems to be in doubt that Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party and Mulayam Singh's Samajwadi Party will bag the top two positions but neither would be able to get a clear majority.
Ms. Mayawati's magic seems to have lost its charm and that could lead to a loss of about 50 seats, a senior Bharatiya Janata Party leader said. “However, the BSP and the SP will together bag upwards of 250 seats in an assembly of 403,” he added. After the May 2007 Assembly elections, the BSP and SP together accounted for over 300 seats. “Five years later, with Ms. Mayawati set to lose around 50 seats, Mulayam Singh could gain 20 to 30. In any case I see them cornering over 250 seats between them unless something radical was to happen between now and the election due in a few months.”
In May 2007 when the last U.P. election results were declared, the BSP bagged 206 seats, SP 97, the BJP 51, Congress 22 and RLD 10. The rest went to independents and smaller outfits. The current Assembly status is 219 BSP, 88 SP, 48 BJP, 20 Congress and 10 RLD plus independents.
Discussing the “uphill task” before the BJP, he made some quick calculations before saying even if his party were to perform rather well it cannot hope to get more than 60 to 70 seats. And this despite the early start of its campaign complete with three `yatras' – L.K. Advani's Jan Chetna Yatra that did touch U.P. and two other ‘yatras' led by former BJP president and state Chief Minister Rajnath Singh and veteran State leader Kalraj Mishra.
With roughly 250 or more seats expected to go to the BSP and the SP and about 15 to 20 to very small parties and independents, the booty available for the BJP, the Congress and its expected alliance partner, the Rashtriya Lok Dal could be just around 130 to 135 seats. These three parties between them had won just 83 seats in 2007. They may certainly improve their positions, but not to the extent they are claiming.
The Congress and the BJP are both hoping to touch the 100 figure – they claim that the mood has become anti-Mayawati and they will be the beneficiaries of the shift in votes. But wishes are not horses and despite some disillusionment of the electorate with `Maya raj' and the previous ‘Yadav rule' the fact is each of these two parties has a solid vote-bank that is not going anywhere.
Already party leaders have begun expressing fears of a hopelessly fractured verdict that could force a spell of President's rule on the State unless sworn political foes decide to become bed-fellows in search of power.
The current public stance – and this is not expected to change will after the results – is that the BJP will prefer to sit in the Opposition than make peace with Ms. Mayawati or Mr. Yadav. “We are not fighting this election to rule U.P., for us the U.P. poll is important for 2014. If we were to go along with either the BSP or the the SP after the poll results are out, we will be sunk in 2014,” said a senior BJP leader. But he also knows that the pressure to give in to immediate gratification will be huge. The BJP has made common cause with Ms. Mayawati thrice before and it could certainly do business with her again. “We do not believe in political untouchability,” has become a `mantra' for every kind of opportunistic politics.
The crown prince of the Congress party Rahul Gandhi has been busy telling the people that a Congress government in the State was a must if U.P.'s fortunes are to be revived. But beleaguered at the Centre and unable to get its way on policy matters and legislation, the Congress too could give in to temptation after the polls. The formula that could well emerge is: embrace Ms. Mayawati or Mr. Yadav and buy peace in New Delhi till the big battle of 2014.
