India’s silence for another day on rising tensions between Iran and Israel over the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh reflects its “dilemma” in trying to balance ties with both countries, say experts. The assassination of Mr. Haniyeh, the political chief of the group accused of the October 7 terror attacks on Israel, who was also Hamas’ lead negotiator with Israel and other countries on a possible ceasefire deal and hostage release negotiations that have failed to fructify for months, is likely to put a pause on the peace process underway. While the Ministry of External Affairs has put out a travel advisory for Indians in Israel and Lebanon, and is likely to update travel advisories for other parts of the region, sources said that there would be no statement on the Haniyeh killing itself.
“The assassination is definitely a major event for India, because it has happened very close to India’s neighbourhood,” said Sujata Ashwarya, Professor at Jamia Milia University’s School of West Asian Studies. “But the government appears to be in a dilemma of sorts as to how to respond to the event,” she added, citing India’s close ties with Iran and Israel as a factor. Adding to the complications for New Delhi, India had sent a senior minister, Road Transport and Highways Minister Nitin Gadkari to the Iranian President Pezeshkian’s inauguration, who was in Tehran when Mr. Haniyeh was killed and had been in a group photo with Mr. Haniyeh, as well as Hezbollah leaders along with dozens of international dignitaries attending.
While India condemned the October 7 attacks in Israel as terrorist acts, the government has not banned Hamas as a terror group, despite requests from Israel. On the other hand the Modi government has facilitated the transfer of at least 5,000 construction workers and plans for about 5,000 caregivers to travel to Israel to fill in for jobs where Palestinian workers were terminated after the October 7 attacks, at Israel PM Netanyahu’s request. With Air India putting off flights to Tel Aviv for this week, and more travel advisories expected, the transfer of Indian workers may also be put on hold in the event of the conflict escalating.
“India will want to issue any statement only after it carefully studies how it might impact ties with Israel, which are critical in certain security and military areas, and also Iran, where [India] has important, critical economic stakes involved,” Ms. Ashwarya concluded.
Others said New Delhi may also be concerned about the impact of the tensions on two recent initiatives: the India-Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC) launched last September, and the 10-year India-Iran MoU for additional development of Chabahar port signed in June this year. While bilateral talks on the IMEEC plan with various partners including UAE, Jordan and Greece have taken place, the steering committee of all IMEEC countries has been unable to meet due to West Asian tensions for nearly a year. Any conflict in the region, and the implementation of any US sanctions will also impact India’s plans for Chabahar port, including land connectivity to Afghanistan and Central Asia. In addition, the India-Israel-UAE-US I2U2 initiative and plans to connect Indian cargo routes through the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) to Russia could be affected.
