The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said the monsoon is unlikely to significantly recover until July second week. Currently, it is stalled and hasn’t progressed into much of northwest India inspite of a very strong start in June. This hiatus could impact sowing in northwest India.
In a monthly update, the IMD on Thursday forecast rainfall for July over the country as a whole to “most likely be normal” (defined as being 96 to 104% of the historical average). July and August are the rainiest monsoon months, contributing over two-thirds of the rainfall and, therefore, critical to kharif crop sowing in most of the country.
Until June 19, monsoon rainfall was exceptionally high, with average rainfall exceeding 40% of what’s normal, and since then, rainfall has been declining.
In June, India normally gets 17.5 cm of rainfall, but this year, it has been 18.7 cm, or 6% more than normal.
The IMD said the monsoon had covered most of the country except parts of Rajasthan, Delhi, Punjab and Haryana and this was unlikely to happen until July second week.
Key reasons
The key reasons for that were neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions that were likely to continue over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and that there was a enhanced possibility of development of negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions over the Indian Ocean during July-September. Both of these related to sea surface temperatures and currently seemed unfavourable to abetting the monsoon progress.
Last year too, the monsoon had a strong start but faltered in July, leading to one of the driest in the last five years. However, this was followed by excessive rains in August and September.
In June, the IMD said monsoon rains would be 101% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 88 cm.
Note to agriculturists
IMD Director General Mrutunjay Mohapatra said, “Agriculturists carrying out rice transplanting in northwest India should be careful as no significant monsoon rain is expected this week. There are also no convective systems forming in the Bay of Bengal and this is unlikely until July second week”.
Historically, the monsoon covered the entire country by July 8, and within that, there was a week’s buffer, he added.
