Govt taking steps to improve accuracy of IMD’s prediction

This is the first year that the IMD has used numerical models for monsoon forecast.  

The Government is taking various steps to further improve the accuracy of predictions made by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), said Union Minister Harsh Vardhan in the Lok Sabha on Wednesday.

During the Question Hour, the Earth Sciences Minister said the IMD has predicted a normal monsoon during the current southwest monsoon season. “Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2018 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is most likely to be normal (96 per cent to 104 per cent of long period average),” he said.

Dr.Vardhan noted that the absolute error of the IMD’s monsoon forecast for seasonal rainfall has shown a significant decrease compared to previous years after the implementation of the new Statistical Ensemble Forecasting System in 2007.

The IMD was able to predict the deficient monsoon rainfall experienced during 2014 and 2015 accurately, the minister said, adding that various measures have been taken to upgrade the IMD forecast system to “further improve prediction accuracy”.

Under the Monsoon Mission, a new dynamical prediction system for long range forecasting of Indian monsoon has been implemented by the IMD.

“The IMD is working to improve the skill of this dynamical prediction system in collaboration with Indian and foreign academic institutions,” Dr.Vardhan said.

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Printable version | Jan 27, 2022 9:22:58 PM |

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