The story so far: Coinciding with the World Population Day on July 11, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, released the World Population Prospects 2022, an estimate on likely trends in global population. The global population, which stood at almost 7.9 billion in 2021, is projected to reach 8 billion on November 15, 2022, the report underlines, with India expected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country in 2023.
What are the highlights of the report?
The projections suggest that the world’s population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050, before reaching a peak of around 10.4 billion in 2100. The population is expected to remain at that level until 2100. Globally, life expectancy reached 72.8 years in 2019, an increase of almost 9 years since 1990. Further reductions in mortality are projected to result in an average longevity of around 77.2 years globally in 2050.
Life expectancy at birth for women exceeded that for men by 5.4 years globally, with female and male life expectancy standing at 73.8 and 68.4, respectively. In 2021, the average fertility—or the number of children born to a woman in her reproductive lifetime — of the world’s population stood at 2.3 births per woman, having fallen from about five births per woman in 1950. Global fertility is projected to decline further to 2.1 births per woman by 2050. Countries of sub-Saharan Africa are expected to continue growing through 2100 and to contribute more than half of the global population increase anticipated through 2050.
More than half of the projected increase in global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in just eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania.
The 46 least developed countries (LDCs) are among the world’s fastest-growing and several are projected to double in population between 2022 and 2050, putting additional pressure on resources and posing challenges to the achievement of the UN-prescribed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Did COVID-19 impact population growth?
Though external shocks take time to reflect in demographic projections, the report is unequivocal that COVID-19 has had an impact. The global life expectancy fell to 71.0 years in 2021, down from 72.8 in 2019, “due mostly” to the pandemic, the report noted. However, it has impacted regions differently. In Central and South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, life expectancy at birth fell by almost three years between 2019 and 2021, on the other hand, the combined population of Australia and New Zealand gained 1.2 years due to lower mortality risks during the pandemic for some causes of death.
What are the implications for India?
In 2021, the fifth edition of India’s National Family Health Survey reported that for the first time in the country’s history, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) had hit 2.0 or below the replacement rate of 2.1. India’s population is predicted to grow from its current 1.4 billion people to 1.67 billion in 2050 before settling at 1.53 billion in 2100, according to official projections. The population is expected to peak at 1.7 billion sometime in 2064, according to UN estimates.
That means, the decline in India’s population is in line with what is being observed in developed countries and is expected to translate into improved living standards per capita and greater gender equity. Because this TFR had been achieved across most States — two major outliers being India’s most populous states, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar — it shows that population decline can be achieved without coercive state policies.
The numbers also mean that India will continue to have a large population of working age people who will be expected to support a growing number of the aged. The pressure to provide quality jobs that are also expected to be climate friendly—or at the very least climate neutral –will only continue to increase. The labour force participation of women in India has shrunk and declining fertility means many more will demand better jobs in a transitioning economy.
What about gender equity?
The Population Foundation of India, an organisation that works on increasing awareness around contraception, pointed out that the NFHS revealed that “unmet need for family planning methods” was the highest among the lowest wealth quintile (11.4%) and lowest among the highest wealth quintile (8.6%) implying that the usage of modern contraceptives increased with income. So, 66.3% of women who are employed are more likely to use modern contraception compared with 53.4% of women who are not. “This data adds to the mountain of evidence that proves that development is the best contraceptive,” Poonam Muttreja, Executive Director of the Population Foundation of India, said. “Our focus should now be to reach the unreached. We must do more for the marginalised sections who may be underprivileged on the basis of class, identity or geography.”
The Gist:
- The global population, which stood at almost 7.9 billion in 2021, is projected to reach 8 billion on November 15, 2022, the report underlines, with India expected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country in 2023.
- The 46 least developed countries (LDCs) are among the world’s fastest-growing and several are projected to double in population between 2022 and 2050, putting additional pressure on resources and posing challenges to the achievement of the UN-prescribed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
- The numbers also mean that India will continue to have a large population of working age people who will be expected to support a growing number of the aged. The pressure to provide quality jobs that are also expected to be climate friendly—or at the very least climate neutral –will only continue to increase.
