Story so far: A bus accident killed at least 10 people following a landslide in Kinnaur, Himachal Pradesh (HP) on Wednesday. It was the second landslip this month, raising concerns if they are part of a larger climate shift.
How vulnerable is Himachal Pradesh?
The mountainous terrain of Himachal Pradesh means that erosion and geological forces will always be at work making the region particularly prone to natural disaster. Between July and the first week of August, the State has experienced four major natural disasters in the last month and over the last three months at least 200 have lost their lives to natural disasters, according to a report by the Centre for Science and Environment.
In 2012, the State environment division had prepared a State Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan as part of the National Climate Change Action Plan. “Deforestation, landslips, land degradation, desertification and Glacier Lake Outbursts Floods (GLOF) are some of the common but critical environmental issues in the Himalayan regions. The major challenges currently faced by the Himalayan environment are the escalation of such issues through atmospheric as well as man-made interferences,” the report noted.
“Himachal Pradesh, though a small Himalayan State, is nevertheless playing a very crucial role in sustaining the livelihoods of downstream areas. The conservation, sustenance of these ecologically fragile regions is the biggest challenge being faced at the moment which can get further aggravated due to financial constraints and limited resources.”
Is climate change to blame for the landslides?
Attributing single events to climate change is hard because the latter refers to a broader shift in the average weather over a region. The most recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) while pointing out that a global rise of 1.5 C (from pre-Industrial times) was inevitable in the next two decades, it also references studies that show rising temperatures would lead to increased glacier melt as well as snowlines (the portion of mountain tops that are perennially snowy) rising higher.
This ties into forecasts of extreme events being on the rise — that is longer, more intense bouts of droughts as well as short, intense spells of rain. This implies that activities such as road-building, heavy-concrete constructions at higher elevation are all at increased risk at being beseiged by natural disasters and will have knock-off effects on people and their habitations.
Have impacts of climate change manifested in Himachal Pradesh?
The environment report has already noted such effects. The temperature in the NW Himalayan Region has risen by 1.6°C in the last century. The warming rate of Shimla was higher during 1991-2002 as compared to earlier decades. About 17% decrease in rainfall in Shimla was observed from 1996 onwards. The decreasing trend in seasonal snowfall in Shimla has been very conspicuous since 1990 and it was lowest in 2009.
Monsoon discharge in Beas River has shown a significant decrease. Winter discharge in River Chenab too has shown a significant increase.
Satluj is showing an increasing trend in winter and spring discharge.
The quality of apples, a major crop, has been affected and cultivation has shifted upwards. Areas that traditionally grew apples are being diverted to vegetables due to rising temperature. Incidence of pest and disease had also increased.
