Ahead of the crucial talks between military commanders of India and China to resolve the month-long stand-off on the border, experts have expressed caution on the outcome of the discussions, saying it would take some hard negotiations to get China move back to its previous positions and require a diplomatic intervention as well.
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“These military to military talks will ensure that there is no escalation on the ground between the two sides. But resolution is not going to happen from military talks alone. It will take some long, hard negotiations and would require diplomatic intervention as well,” Lt. Gen. D.S. Hooda (retd.) told The Hindu . India would want restoration of status quo ante before May 5 and China would not accept it immediately, the former Northern Army Commander said.
On Saturday, in the first-ever ground level talks at the level of Lieutenant Generals, the Army’s 14 Corps Commander will lead the Indian delegation for talks with his Chinese equivalent to be held at the Chushul-Moldo border meeting point on the Chinese side.
Separately, responding to questions on the border talks, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) said they continue to maintain close communications though military and diplomatic channels and were committed to “resolve the relevant issue.”
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Lt. Gen. S.L. Narasimhan (retd.), Member of the National Security Advisory Board and Director General of the Centre for Contemporary China Studies, said talks have been going on at different levels on the ground since the beginning of the tensions early last month.
“Since the meeting is at a higher level and the first time such talks are taking between the top military commanders, some positive movement is expected,” he stated and added total resolution was tough.
The stand-off began a month back with scuffles on the night of May 5 at Pangong Tso, resulting in serious injuries on both sides. There was another scuffle on May 9 at Naku La in Sikkim. Beginning then, China has systematically brought in large number of troops inside Indian territory at various points at Pangong Tso, Galwan and Hot Springs in Ladakh.
Lt. Gen. HS Panag (retd.) said meetings between military commanders would be appropriate to resolve a localised incident like in the past. “This is not a small incident. The decision is at the strategic level. And would have been taken politically at the highest levels in the Chinese government,” the former Northern Army Commander noted.
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“The backdrop of the push by China is to reassert its hegemony in the light of other developments and make us back down on our infrastructure development and so the resolution of this problem has to be at that level”, he stated. “Military commanders can at best spell out the expectations on both side, what they can do to diffuse the situation. Then the ball will get thrown to the political level.”
Negotiating a pullback by China from Pangong Tso and Galwan would be tricky, he said. On Pangong Tso, the Indian side should negotiate to restore status quo before May and urge China to move back from Finger 4 with a promise of not developing infrastructure beyond the point. On Hot Springs, he said, there shouldn’t be any problem as it was a minor incursion. Galwan had not been an area of contention in the past and “that will be a tough one,” he added.
Chinese response
MFA spokesperson Geng Shuang said in Beijing that the current situation in the boundary region was “overall stable and controllable.”
“We have full-fledged border related mechanisms and we maintain close communications though military and diplomatic channels. We are committed to properly resolve the relevant issue,” he stated.
