They are not political scientists or psephologists, but driven by systematic calculations, punters try their luck in gauging the electoral mood to make a quick buck.
If bookies are to be believed, thousands of crores of rupees are riding on the Lok Sabha election.
“In 2009, thousands of crores rode on the election, but this time, with bookies active in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Kolkata and Delhi accepting bets from punters, the stakes are even higher,” a Thane-based operator told The Hindu .
They accept rates from punters mostly over the phone. Most of them are on the move and operate from moving cars to evade arrest. The police, on their part, put their cellphone numbers on surveillance.
Offshore syndicates run the illegal business with money accepted and returned through hawala channels. With no stringent laws in place, the bookies, if arrested, manage to get bail easily, a senior police officer here said.
Rates declaredThis week, the bookies declared their rates for the 543 Lok Sabha seats to which elections are being held in different phases over two months.
By their calculations, the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to perform better than the Congress. “… the BJP should get around 200 seats,” a bookie from the western suburbs of Mumbai said.
Throwing light on the business, he explained how the syndicate works: “We derived our poll figures by closely studying the markets and taking into consideration the various surveys before offering the rates.”
For the likely scenario of the BJP winning 200 seats, the bookies offer 24 paisa for every one rupee bet — if they party manages to win 200 seats, the punter takes home Rs. 1.24.
The bookies calculate that the Congress is expected to win 75 to 85 seats.
The rate offered for 75 seats won by the Congress is 24 paise, while for 85 seats, it is Rs.1.60. They say the Aam Aadmi Party will end up with a single-digit tally.
“The cricket season has been very disappointing. We had incurred a huge loss of around Rs. 500 crore, and we are hoping to recover it during the election,” another bookie from Kurla, a central suburb of Mumbai, said.
The bookies circuit has bet on Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya Janata Party as the next Prime minister. While Mr. Modi is offered 42 paisa, Rahul Gandhi is second at Rs. 6.75.
The Mumbai Police are keeping a close tab on the bookies. “The Crime Branch is closely monitoring the bookies,” Joint Commissioner of Police (Crime) Sadanand Date told The Hindu .
