In the by-elections that have been held since its massive victory in the 2014 general elections, the BJP has won just over half the seats it held while the Congress has increased its tally to double what it was. However, electoral data shows that by-election results may not be a good barometer of future success.
The BJP has won just 20 of the 54 Assembly seats in which by-elections have been held, despite holding 36 of them. Its biggest losses were in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, where it went down from 10 seats to three and six seats to four respectively.
The Congress wrested 11 seats held by the BJP – Bahoriband in Madhya Pradesh, Bellary in Karnataka, Bhagalpur in Bihar, Surajgarh, Weir and Nasirabad in Rajasthan, Doiwala and Someshwar in Uttarakhand, Dessa, Khambhalia and Mangrol in Gujarat. The Congress’s overall tally has gone up from seven to 15 seats in these constituencies.
However, winning a big mandate in general election has never been a guarantee of sweeping by-elections. In October 2004, in the first by-polls after it came to power in April-May 2004, the Congress won just 16 of 46 seats – nearly the same proportion as the BJP just won. In those by-polls too, the Congress won fewer seats than it held, coming down from 18 seats to 16 seats, The Hindu found.
Political researchers Rahul Verma and Paranav Gupta of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies analysed 1,100 by-elections for Assembly seats and 213 by-elections for parliamentary seats that took place between 1967 and 2012. They found that the ruling party in the State was more likely to win the by-polls than the ruling party in the centre. In fact, when the incumbent party at the State and Centre were different – as is the case with the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh at the moment – the party ruling in the State was twice as likely to win the by-poll. Even so, by-polls were an indicator of purely local dynamics, and not even State-level trends, they found.
List of winners (Assembly by-polls)
| State | Constituencies | Winner | Party |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uttar Pradesh | Lucknow (East) | Ashutosh Tondon | BJP |
| Charkhari | Kaptan Singh | SP | |
| Sirathu | Vachaspati | SP | |
| Balha | Banshidhar Bauddh | SP | |
| Rohaniya | Mahendra Singh Patel | SP | |
| Nighasan | Krishana Gopal Patel | SP | |
| Saharanpur Nagar | Rajeev Gumber | BJP | |
| Bijnore | Ruchiveera | SP | |
| Thakurwara | Navab Jan | SP | |
| Noida | Vimla Batham | BJP | |
| Hamirpur | Shivcharan Prajapati | SP | |
| West Bengal | Basirhat Dakshin | Samik Bhattacharya | BJP |
| Chowringhee | Nayna Bandyopadhyay | TMC | |
| Andhra Pradesh | Nandigama | Tangirala Sowmya | TDP |
| Rajasthan | Nasirabad | Ramnarayan | Congress |
| Weir | Bhajanlal | Congress | |
| Surajgarh | Sharwan Kumar | Congress | |
| Kota (South) | Sandeep Sharma | BJP | |
| Assam | Silchar | Dilip Kumar Paul | BJP |
| Lakhipur | Rajdeep Goala | Congress | |
| Jamunamukh | Abdur Rahim Ajmal | AIUDF | |
| Tripura | Manu | Pravat Chowdhury | CPI(M) |
| Sikkim | Rangang-Yangang | Rup Narayan Chamling | IND |
| Gujarat | Deesa | Rabari Govabhai | Congress |
| Maninagar | Patel Sureshbhai Dhanjibhai | BJP | |
| Tankara | Metaliya Bavanjibhai Hansrajbhai | BJP | |
| Khambhalia | Ahir Meraman | Congress | |
| Mangrol | Vaja Babubhai | Congress | |
| Talaja | Gohil Shivabhai Jerambhai | BJP | |
| Anand | Patel Rohitbhai Jashubhai | BJP | |
| Matar | Kesrisinh Jesangbhai Solanki | BJP | |
| Limkheda | Bhuriya Vichhiyabhai Jokhnabhai | BJP |
List of winners (Lok Sabha by-polls)
| State | Constituency | Winner | Party |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uttar Pradesh | Mainpuri | Tej Pratap Singh Yadav | SP |
| Telangana | Medak | Kotha Prabhakar Reddy | TRS |
| Gujarat | Vadodara | Ranjanaben Dhananjay Bhatt | BJP |
