It all boils down to numbers now

December 05, 2011 10:46 am | Updated 10:46 am IST - HYDERABAD:

On the eve of the test of strength in the Assembly, the focus was riveted on how many ruling party MLAs owing loyalty to Mr. Y. S. Jaganmohan Reddy would vote in favour of the TDP-sponsored no confidence motion on Monday.

Praja Rajyam Party MLAs, after indulging in muscle-flexing on Saturday, are expected to vote for the government tomorrow. They toned down their belligerence after Congress heavyweights Ghulam Nabi Azad and Ahmed Patel entered the picture and assured Mr. K. Chiranjeevi that the interests of his MLAs would be taken care of.

KVP talks to Kiran

Several MLAs in the Jagan camp are, however, determined to vote against the government and the question is all about their number. As the Congress grappled with these twin challenges, Rajya Sabha member K. V. P. Ramachandra Rao held detailed consultations with Chief Minister N. Kiran Kumar Reddy, APCC chief Botcha Satyanarayana and Ministers, apparently at the instance of the Congress high command. He declared later that the numbers clearly favoured the Congress Government.

The Congress' pressure on its rebels seemed to be working. At least three of the 23 MLAs who attended a meeting with Mr. Jaganmohan Reddy at his Lotus Pond residence here slipped away from his camp on Saturday, while one more, P.B. Sivaprasad Reddy, announced his decision to back the Congress Government.

As this never-ending game of numbers continued, the number of MLAs likely to defy the Congress' whip was put at around 14-15 by the Jagan camp by Sunday evening and at 10-15 by the Congress leadership.

Defiance justified

They justify their defiance on the ground of principles – commitment to the cause of the beleaguered farmers and display of loyalty to their chosen leader. As the cross-voting will attract provisions of the anti-defection law and lead to disqualification, these legislators are said to be prepared to face by-elections. The TDP too is anticipating that three of its 86 MLAs may defy its whip and stay away during the voting.

The Jagan camp says that in moving the no confidence motion the TDP has struck a secret deal with the Congress to cause a division in the YSR Congress and expose its real strength on the Assembly floor. TDP president N. Chandrababu Naidu's response is “Mr. Jagan indulged in a lot of thigh-slapping and challenged us to table a no confidence motion. Now that we have done it, his MLAs must be prepared to face disqualification. Why is he developing cold feet now,” he told The Hindu .

Interestingly, Mr. Jaganmohan Reddy and Mr. Naidu see an opportunity in the unfolding scenario. Each of them claims that they will win a majority of seats in the by-elections. Their assessment is that there is a crisis of credibility in the polity and their respective parties were best placed to provide a trustworthy alternative.

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