In 2008, negotiations over the special waiver for India at the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) had gone down to the wire. The real worry was China, as it will be again on Thursday, during a special session of the NSG, convened in Vienna, to discuss India’s membership application. The session, called ahead of the annual NSG plenary in Seoul on June 23-24, is looking specifically at the applications from India and Pakistan for membership to the 48 member nuclear export control regime.
Less than a decade ago, the Indian diplomatic team, including the special envoy Shyam Saran and then Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon, were sitting down to breakfast just hours before the NSG meeting in Vienna. “China hadn’t told us anything directly, but through other countries they were talking to, it was clear that the government in Beijing was not on board,” recounts Mr. Saran. They were in the coffee shop with other diplomats, when a Chinese diplomat appeared out of nowhere, left a note on the table and disappeared. “The note said simply that China had decided to accept the draft [for India’s waiver] without changes. In that moment, we realised we were going to go through.”
As Prime Minister makes his last scheduled stop of his current tour in Mexico on Wednesday to garner support for India’s membership, Indian diplomats in Vienna are hoping that something similarly miraculous will work and China, that has been extremely vocal about its opposition to Indian membership, will change its stand at the last moment.
Kerry appeal U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry had made a plea to NSG members that were not keen on India's membership to “agree not to block consensus on Indian admission”, Bloomberg News reported based on a two-page letter dated June 3 which it had accessed. Mr Kerry wrote that "India has shown strong support for the objectives of the NSG and the global nuclear non-proliferation regime and is a 'like-minded' state deserving of NSG admission”.
Mr Kerry has also suggested that India would be willing to cooperate on Pakistan's admission.
“With respect to other possible new members of the NSG, Indian officials have stated that India would take a merit-based approach to such applications and would not be influenced by extraneous regional issues,” he wrote.
“China won’t want to be the only one in the room to put their hand up in objection,” explains Mr. Saran, who was also Chairman of the National Security Advisory Board until February 2015. “If we are similarly able to mobilise support, then it is possible (to change China’s stand).”
China’s objections have been three-fold, articulated again since India applied formally for NSG membership on May 12 this year: that India is not a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty; that no “country-specific” exemption could be given, given Pakistan’s application for NSG membership a week after India; and that the NSG decision should not change the “South Asian balance”.
“Members within the group still differ on the accession of countries which are not party states to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT),” Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a written response to a PTI query this week, adding that “China stands for continuous and full discussions within the group on this issue to forge a consensus and make a decision based on agreement.”
Winning a vote at the NSG is not about numbers but consensus, and China’s vote against India, like that of any of the other 47 members could dash India’s hopes. To that end, Prime Minister Modi has travelled to one-third of the NSG members in the past two years, while the External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar have tapped others including hosting NSG chair Rafael Grossi in Delhi last November. The addition of Switzerland and Mexico to the Prime Minister’s tour to Washington this week came so he could personally win expressions of support from some of those still holding out.
In the weeks leading up to the NSG application, the government also tried another direct pitch to China, announcing a visit by President Pranab Mukherjee. Officials say the President brought up the issue at the “highest level” seeking President Xi Jinping’s “personal attention” to India’s quest for clean nuclear energy.
Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar is understood to have discussed it with Foreign Minister Wang Yi during the visit as well. However, the officials also conceded the strain in India-China ties over Indian closeness to the U.S. on its South China Sea standoff, and strong comments such as the speech by Defence Minister Parrikar in Singapore last week, didn’t help with the effort to “smooth ruffled feathers” in Beijing.
U.S.-China tussle Others who were a part of the effort in 2008, like former PM spokesperson Sanjaya Baru, say the changed balance of power between the U.S., which is promoting India’s efforts for NSG membership, and China must also be considered. In 2008, President Bush is reported to have called President Hu and conveyed his hope for China’s support.
“There is a big difference between 2008 and now. The power balance was different, and I don’t think in today’s scenario President Obama can call President Xi Jinping with the same results. India will have to work out the NSG issue with China through direct talks and not expect that U.S. can swing it on its own,” Dr. Baru said.
A final difference between the 2008 and 2016 bids is the present application from Pakistan, which officials worry could be a spoiler. “Many countries are wary of Pakistan’s terrible record on nuclear proliferation and terrorism,” says Mr. Saran. “And this could turn even those favourably disposed towards India from admitting either as a new member.”
