Gujarat Chief Minister Anandiben Patel has cited the 75 years cut off age advocated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to bow out of her current office. Her timing, however, has more to do with the impending Assembly polls in Gujarat in 2017 rather than her 75 birthday in November.
Buffeted by twin agitations, one by the Patidar community led by Hardik Patel (Patidars are a politically dominant community and form the backbone of the BJP’s support in Gujarat) and another, more worrisome one, by the Dalit community (more than 8% of the votes) in the State, Ms. Patel was looking less and less like the leader who could take the BJP to victory in 2017.
Local body polls held in December 2015, that saw the Congress do well in the rural areas, reinforced the view that hers was not the winning hand the party was looking for.
Prime Minister Modi (who ruled the State for 12 straight years) and BJP president Amit Shah are both from Gujarat, and slipping ground support in their home State was not something either of them would have liked to face.
External factorsThe reasons, however, were not just external threats to the stability of her government. Professor Ghanshyam Shah, former national fellow, Indian Council for Social Science Research (ICSSR) and a keen observer of Gujarat and its politics, posits her resignation to both external and internal pressures.
“Her exit is of course hugely driven by external factors, the Patidar Andolan and the resistance by Dalits, and in this I will say that the Patidar movement in particular could have been handled better by her. But the overall impression that was projected by her own party was that she was weak in dealing with the Patidar agitation,” he said.
Equations with ShahIt is no secret that she shared less than warm vibes with the BJP chief Amit Shah. In an interview to The Hindu , she had talked of her equations with Mr. Shah. “I feel there is no need for comparisons [between herself and Mr Shah]. Everyone has their strengths and weaknesses. In the case of Gujarat, the organisation is very strong. There can be differences of opinion. Everyone is free to express themselves, but decisions are taken collectively where the party president has the final word.”
After an eventful two years, Ms. Patel may be heading for a gubernatorial post in one of the vacant Raj Bhavans.
Her farewell to Gujarat, sources said, will be marked by a special function, where Mr. Modi, who had hand picked her as his successor in Ahmedabad, is likely to be present.
