An attempt to assassinate Pakistan’s former PM Imran Khan during a rally throws Pakistan into further turmoil as his supporters blame the military, demand elections
On Nov 3, Opposition leader and former PM Imran Khan,who has just launched a Haqeeqi Azadi or real freedom movement- calling for immediate elections, was shot at in both legs during a rally in Wazirabad, about 100 kms from Lahore- he is now stable, and recovering from his injuries in hospital- atleast 1 person was killed in the shooting and several others, including Khan’s aides were injured.
Imran Khan is not just former Cricket Captain and former PM but an international personality, and statements have come in from the US, Canada, UK, Germany, Saudi Arabia, the OIC, condemning the attack- this is clearly an event the world is watching closely, as is India
Let’s take a step back- 2022 has certainly been a year of dramatic developments in Pakistan, for Imran Khan, and for the Pakistani military’s credibility:
Cascading crisis in Pakistan
- In April this year, PM Khan stepped down after losing a confidence vote, and a political drama that lasted nearly a month
- Since then he has held a number of public rallies, bringing in massive crowds across the country
- At the rallies, Khan criticised his political rivals, the government of PM Shehbaz Sharif, but also the Pakistani military and the ISI – probably a first
- In May, Imran Khan said he had received information of a planned attempt on his life- he said he had made a video recording naming his would be assassins- including PM Sharif, Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah and an Army General Faisal Naseer- whom he referred to as Dirty Harry
- In particular, he made the reference repeatedly to a cipher- diplomatic telegram that he claimed showed that the US had ordered his ouster as PM- which he blamed the military for carrying out
- In August, the government banned News TV ARY that was seen as pro-Khan, and arrested its executive and filed cases against its journalists
- In October, Imran Khan was also disqualified from public office, with the possibility that he may not even be allowed to contest elections due in 2023
- Two days later, a former Pakistani journalist with ARY known to be close to Khan was shot dead in Kenya- and media reports began pointing fingers at Pakistani military intelligence
- Next, the unexpected happened- for the first time ever Pakistan’s ISI chief Gen Nadeem Anjum held a press conference refuting all the charges- .
- And then- the assassination attempt- reports are suggesting that the man who shot Khan, and has been arrested is not the only shooter at the rally- with some suggesting automatic weapons fire was heard as well
The big question that will haunt Pakistan now is clearly- who is behind the attack. There is no question that Khan has made powerful enemies in many quarters- but previous assassinations and deaths of leaders in Pakistan have happened without a conclusive investigation, including PM Liaqat Ali Khan in 1951, the plane crash that killed military ruler Gen Zia Ul Haq in 1988, and former PM Benazir Bhutto in 2007. Threats against other leaders in the past have led to many leaving politics and leaving the country.
What does this mean for the Pakistan government ?
1. Political instability- as calls for the government to resign and accede to Khan’s demand for general elections grow.
2. Military instability- Army Chief General Bajwa is set to step down on November 29, and his successor is unclear. Amidst reports that there are divisions within the army with several Khan sympathizers, and major protests against the army itself on the streets, the institution is facing unprecedented challenges
3. Security instability- with the situation in Afghanistan threatening to spill over, the emboldening of terror groups given safe haven on both sides of the Af Pak border could lead to more terror attacks inside Pakistan.
4. Economic instability- Pakistan is still grappling with the worst floods in decades, that have slashed growth figures to 2% this year, while inflation is projected to cross 20%, and foreign exchange reserves have emptied out. Meanwhile, Covid losses, food and energy shortages after the Ukraine war, and debt repayments, particularly to China will make Pakistan unstable for the foreseeable future
5. Regional and international instability- Here is why most other countries including India, must care:
- In times of economic strife, Pakistan’s radical islamist groups have grown more powerful, leading to more terrorist groups and recruits spreading in the region- particularly the cross border spillover to India
- Pakistani groups and terrorists are implicated in attacks not just inside Pakistan, but in India, US, UK, France, and many parts of Asia.
- Pakistan is also the lynchpin for China’s Belt and Road Initiative, particularly for Central Asian countries, which need connectivity to the sea through the CPEC. This may actually help India, which is promoting the alternative routes through Iran- Chabahar port and the INSTC
- Pakistan’s total external debt is 37% of its GDP at present, and a default would cause instability within the international credit market.
- The region has already instability in Afghanistan under the Taliban, Iran with protests over the compulsory Hijab growing every day, and economic turmoil in Sri Lanka. India and Pakistan have made little movement on talks in seven years. And lastly, Pakistan is a nuclear power
The attack on Imran Khan has been claimed by a lone wolf, and even as the conspiracy behind the shooting is investigated in Pakistan, it is necessary for the international community to keep an eye on all the extended repercussions of instability and violence inside Pakistan spreading across its borders as well.
READING RECOMMENDATIONS:
1. Pakistan: A Personal History by Imran Khan
2. Reimagining Pakistan:: Transforming a Dysfunctional Nuclear State Hardcover – April 20, 2018 by Husain Haqqani (Author)
3. Making Sense of Pakistan by Farzana Shaikh
4. The Pakistan Paradox: Instability and Resilience Paperback by Christophe Jaffrelot
5. Pakistan’s Political Parties: Surviving between Dictatorship and Democracy (South Asia in World Affairs series) by Mariam Mufti and Sahar Shafqat
6.The Nine Lives of Pakistan: Dispatches from a Precarious State by Declan Walsh
7.Pakistan: Origins, Identity and Future by Pervez Hoodbhoy
8. India’s Pakistan Conundrum: Managing a Complex Relationship by Sharat Sabharwal
9. Pashtuns: A contested history by Tilak Devashar
