The story so far: On March 27, Myanmar commemorated its Armed Forces Day with a grand parade featuring Russia as the guest of honour. The Armed Forces Day is in honour of the army’s rebellion against the Japanese occupation in 1945. The leader of the country’s ruling military junta, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, gave exceptionally inflammatory comments aimed to quell dissidents and protesters. He said that the armed forces would “annihilate” the dissidents who he deemed “supporters of terrorist groups” looking to threaten the peace and security of the country. The country has led intense crackdowns on those resisting junta rule. The General invalidated the identity and agency of those protesting, and by deeming them terrorists, provided the authorities a basis to engage violently.
What is happening on the ground?
The military continues to conduct operations in different regions of the country to quash dissident voices. The regions under artillery attack, airstrikes, and other physical forms of violent attacks include Sagaing, the Kayah State, the Chin State, and the Kayin State, reminiscent of last year’s bloody operations on Armed Forces Day. Myanmar continues its resistance with political opponents of the junta also joining militias. These militias have collaborated with some long-standing ethnic armed groups which have operated in the borderlands of the country.
These States have rarely been centrally controlled. For most part of their history, these have been ruled by local leaders. These States can also serve as a buffer between Myanmar and its bordering nations and thus be a site of constant assaults. The Wa state of the larger Shan State in particular has a remarkably complex history with it being over-run by Mao Zedong’s forces during the Chinese Civil War. After about two decades, the region was taken over by the Communist Party of Burma. Deng Xiaoping’s tenure saw China making a halt on the assaults and instead focusing on potential trade opportunities. As a result of such historical events, China enjoys a complex relationship with the local factions and the military junta.
What is the Myanmar-Russia relationship?
Myanmar’s military junta seized power last year on February 1 and then invited Russia, their “true friend”, as a guest of honour for its Armed Forces Day celebrations. Apart from Russia, India and seven other countries sent their representatives to attend the military parade. Keeping the bonhomie alive, Myanmar was one of the very few countries which came to Moscow’s defence after the invasion of Ukraine. Russia also continues to be a major defence exporter to Myanmar. Myanmar doesn’t like to exclusively depend on one country for its defence needs and its history shows that it likes to cozy up to different seemingly sympathetic countries. Apart from Russia, China is another major player which offers arms to Myanmar. Pakistan, India, Serbia, Belarus, Ukraine, and the Republic of Korea also routinely export defence equipment, and small to medium size arms and ammunitions. Myanmar has a tumultuous relationship with China as Beijing is also involved in arming rebel factions and thus, Myanmar wishes to diversify its dependence.
The relationship between Russia and the junta seems to be of cooperation, one which now favours Moscow more than before as it faces sanctions from a host of countries. Myanmar is looking to use their raw materials as currency which works out for them as well as Moscow. The flip side to this story is that as the Russian offence continues in Ukraine, it would not have the capacity or the willingness to export its defence equipment to Myanmar.
Myanmar continues to run the Moscow agenda in international fora whenever it can by being sympathetic to Russia’s actions and referring to Vladimir Putin as “a visionary leader who had the foresight to quietly build up his military and economic strength”. In doing so, they are propagating a strong-man argument and thus trying to solidify their domestic support to sell a similarly constructed imagination of what a nation could be with just the right kind of actions.
How has the junta acted?
The junta’s actions in Myanmar have been downright horrific. Hundreds of children were detained since the junta seized power back in 2021 in a bid to use them as leverage in order to find and arrest their family members and relatives who may be part of dissident groups. The junta was and continues to be allegedly involved in mass killings, acts of sexual violence, and arbitrary arrests of protesters and other civic society members who refuse to toe the line. On February 1, 2021, the junta arrested the country’s elected leaders including Aung San Suu Kyi and then president Win Myint. It is reported that close to 4,00,000 people have been internally displaced since the beginning of the coup in 2021.
With updated data | Photo Credit: Graphic news
What led to the coup?
To make sense of the 2021 coup in Myanmar, it is important to look at the chequered history of independent Myanmar. The country has been in a constant tussle between democracy and military rule. Before the 2021 coup, it had previously witnessed two coups; in 1962 and in 1988. Even during the brief periods of democracy, the junta continued to remain the strongest institution. Myanmar has seen three Constitutions being drawn up and enacted, the latest of it being a result of the military junta. They gave themselves 25% of the seats in the legislature and thus made it possible that amendments couldn’t pass without their support.
The junta gave concessions to the democratic elements and released Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest in 2010 under strict conditions, one of which was that she could never be the President. She was, however, able to circumvent this clause by taking control as ‘State Counsellor’ with de-facto power residing with her as a customary President’s post was taken up by a proxy. What the junta did not realise was how her popularity would surge. The year 2015 saw the National League of Democracy (NLD), led by Suu Kyi, winning 77% of the seats in Parliament.
The reasons for the 2021 coup stem from this growing popularity of Suu Kyi and her party. The junta would have wanted to squash this before democracy made any more inroads into the junta’s stronghold on the country.
Who’s the coup leader?
Gen. Min Aung Hlaing became Myanmar’s military chief in 2011, at a time when the country was transitioning into quasi democracy. When Aung Saan Suu Kyyi’s NLD swept the 2015 election, the military accepted the results. But the political peace did not last long. When the NLD swept the 2020 election with a bigger mandate, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), a proxy of the military, alleged election fraud. On February 1, Gen. Min Aung Hlaing carried out the third coup in the country’s history.
As a commanding officer, he led several military campaigns against the country’s myriad rebels. But his rise to the top echelons of the powerful military was sealed after he led the 2009 offensive against the Myanmar Nationalities Democratic Alliance Army, an insurgents group in the Kokang region, along the border of China’s Yunnan province. Within one week, the Myanmar military dislodged thousands of insurgents from the border. The campaign also resulted in thousands of refugees fleeing the border villages to the Chinese side of the border. Within the military, the campaign was hailed as a victory and Gen. Min Aung Hlaing got the attention of Senior General Than Shwe. In August 2010, he was appointed joint chief of staff. And in March 2011, when Gen. Than Shwe, in his mid-70s, retired, he picked Gen. Min Aung Hlaing as his successor.
When the NLD swept the 2020 election, the Army considered the rising popularity of the party and its leader a threat. The Generals made three demands to Ms. Suu Kyi, according to a Reuters report: disband the Election Commission, announce a probe into alleged election fraud and postpone the meeting of Parliament. Ms. Suu Kyi said ‘no’ to all three. Then came the coup.
What is India’s stand?
India’s relationship with Myanmar has been predicated on maintaining a balance in its neighbourhood in a bid to keep a check on China’s growing influence. In doing so, it has forgone certain democratic ideals and allowed itself to not publicly speak against the events transpiring in Myanmar. It abstained from voting on the United Nations General Assembly’s resolution on Myanmar and has constantly refused to actively speak out against the junta. Recently, India urged Myanmar to end violence and implement ASEAN’s five-point consensus. It continues to offer military exports to Myanmar.
Different multilateral forums and organisations are trying to get the junta to mend their ways but to little avail. In his recent visit to Myanmar, ASEAN’s special envoy, Prak Sokhonn, hinted that the junta leadership gave a positive response towards the possibility of him being able to meet the democratic leadership.
Sri Lanka’s Foreign Secretary, Admiral Jayanath Colombage, communicated the idea that they would be looking to engage with Myanmar. As of now, the Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa is hosting the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other regional leaders from BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) in a hybrid mode.
Recently, the Biden administration, in a bid to put Myanmar under the limelight internationally, ruled that the military junta carried out genocide against the Rohingya minority. It also, along with the U.K. and Canada, implemented sanctions against high-ranking members of the junta. The U.N. Security Council condemned the actions of the junta falling short of terming the events of 2021 as a “coup”. New Zealand suspended political and diplomatic ties with Myanmar back in 2021 but continued to make sure that developmental programmes function seamlessly.
It becomes especially important for the international community to act in ways which while punishing the military junta for its actions and trying to force them into taking corrective measures also doesn’t hurt the local population of the country. Blind economic sanctions won’t get the job done and would only hurt the already hurting populace, say observers.
Rishabh Kachroo is a Ph.D. scholar at the Department of International Relations and Governance Studies, Shiv Nadar University.
THE GIST
On March 27, Myanmar commemorated its Armed Forces Day with Russia as the guest of honour. Myanmar was one of the few countries which came to Moscow’s defence after the invasion of Ukraine as Russia continues to be a major defence exporter to Myanmar.
The Myanmar junta continues to conduct operations in different regions of the country to quash dissident voices. The junta was and continues to be allegedly involved in mass killings, acts of sexual violence, and arbitrary arrests of protesters and other civic society members who refuse to toe the line.
India’s relationship with Myanmar has been predicated on maintaining a balance in its neighbourhood in order to check China’s growing influence. Recently, India urged Myanmar to end violence and implement ASEAN’s five-point consensus while continuing to offer military exports to Myanmar.
- On March 27, Myanmar commemorated its Armed Forces Day with Russia as the guest of honour. Myanmar was one of the few countries which came to Moscow’s defence after the invasion of Ukraine as Russia continues to be a major defence exporter to Myanmar.
- The Myanmar junta continues to conduct operations in different regions of the country to quash dissident voices. The junta was and continues to be allegedly involved in mass killings, acts of sexual violence, and arbitrary arrests of protesters and other civic society members who refuse to toe the line.
- India’s relationship with Myanmar has been predicated on maintaining a balance in its neighbourhood in order to check China’s growing influence. Recently, India urged Myanmar to end violence and implement ASEAN’s five-point consensus while continuing to offer military exports to Myanmar.
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