Prime Minister Theresa May has warned that no Brexit at all is the most likely outcome if MPs reject her withdrawal deal on Tuesday, as she sought to persuade wavering MPs to back her.
With a clear majority of parliamentarians set to oppose her deal, the main question is over the scale of the defeat — with the Prime Minister making every effort to make it a close result, potentially enabling her to return with a second amended deal in the future were the EU to agree to changes.
Letter from EU
The deal is expected to be voted down despite a new letter from Jean Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, and Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, offering assurances over the temporary nature of the Irish backstop. However, with the letter failing to amount to anything that would be legally binding, it is unlikely to ease the concerns of those fearful that the deal risks leaving the U.K. in a perpetual state of limbo where it could remain bound to EU rules without having an influence over policy.
Highlighting the level of the crisis, Gareth Johnson, a government whip, resigned on Monday, insisting that he could not “in all conscience” support the government’s position.
How the defeat on the much-delayed vote on Tuesday will be inflicted remains unclear. Much lies in the hands of Speaker John Bercow, who will select which amendments can be voted on. Last week, Mr. Bercow provoked an outcry from many Brexiteers after allowing a vote on an amendment that requires the government to return to the House within three days of any defeat with a ‘Plan B’ option.
One amendment currently in the frame on Tuesday is from Labour MP Hilary Benn that would reject the Brexit deal entirely while also rejecting leaving without a deal. However, even this is controversial as some argue that it would alienate some “hard” Brexiteers.
Future strategy
Also, Conservative MP Nick Boles has said that he and his colleagues are eager to push against the withdrawal deal and then to hand over the process of determining a Brexit strategy to the House of Commons Liaison Committee. However, this too is controversial, particularly as the committee’s chair is Sarah Wollaston, a Conservative MP who supports a second referendum.
In the first of two speeches on Monday, Ms. May insisted that her deal was “worthy of support” because it put laws back in the control of the British people. “While no deal remains a serious risk, having observed events at Westminster over the last seven days, it is now my judgment that the more likely outcome is a paralysis in Parliament that risks there being no Brexit.”
