Politicians and voters may or may not be making America great again, but they are making American politics young, and young again, if one considers the fact that several of the country’s ‘Founding Fathers’ were in their 20s and 30s. This trend is showing up in at least two ways — a surge in the number of young candidates running for office and the number of young people voting.
On the supply side, some 700 millennials (a hazily defined term for those attaining adulthood in the early years of this millennium), ran in 6,000 State legislative races in November, according to a report in Axios.
On the demand side, the estimated midterm election turnout for 18-29-year-olds was 31%, according to CIRCLE, a research centre at Tufts University. The record since 1986 has been 21%. In several tight State races such as those in Nevada and Texas, there was a fivefold increase in early voting among the 18-29-year-olds compared to 2014, according to The Hill, a political website.
The increase in young voters between 2014 and 2018 went almost entirely to Democrats, with Republican numbers remaining stable, according to an Harvard University Institute of Politics estimate. Exit polls analysed by Real Clear Politics suggest that young voters prefer Democrats by margins of +27 to +35 points to their Republican counterparts.
Millennials are the most racially and ethnically diverse adult generation in the country today, Michael Dimock, president of the Pew Research Centre, writes. They ranged in age (depending on the definition) from 12 to 27 when the youth vote became a topic of political conversation and a factor in getting the first black President elected in 2008.
With the recession having begun, millennial life choices in the U.S. were shaped by a rougher start to adulthood, according to Mr. Dimock. Then there is the technology factor: while millennials may not have been hyper-connected since they were toddlers, they have made technology second nature to how they communicate.
A case in point is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the youngest ever person elected to Congress. The 29-year-old has hosted Instagram videos of her making dinner in which, for instance, she polls her followers on what to do with old food stored in the fridge (something young people can especially relate to), while taking questions on issues of national importance. This is a level more intimate than merely using social media to communicate directly to citizens.
Structural bottlenecks
Technology and demographics may be changing politics but some structural bottlenecks remain, reflecting, arguably, outmoded perceptions of the relationship between youth and politics. This is nicely summed up by the title of a piece by Matthew Yglesias in Vox: “It’s ridiculous that it’s unconstitutional for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to run for President”. You have to be 35 to run for the top job. Changing this will require a constitutional amendment. Mr. Yglesias makes the broader argument that anyone who can vote should also be allowed to run for President.
Younger people are disproportionally under-represented in politics today. The average age of members of the (outgoing) Senate is 62 and it is 58 for the House, making this the oldest Congress ever. Despite their 27% share of the voting population, millennials only account for 6% of State legislators, Axios reports. But if current trends continue, with the youth factor significantly shaping the supply and demand side of politics, the day may not be far off when an under-35 runs for and wins the presidency.
Sriram Lakshman works for The Hindu and is based in Washington.
