A little more than two years ago, Juan Guaidó was showered with bipartisan applause when President Donald Trump during his state of the union speech praised the Venezuelan opposition leader as a “very brave man" who carries on his shoulders the democratic hopes of an entire nation.
But in a sign of how far his political fate has fallen, and how quickly U.S. geopolitical calculations can shift, the 38-year-old wasn't even invited to this week's Summit of the Americas — despite the Biden administration's persistent promotion of democracy and insistence it recognises Mr. Guaidó as Venezuela's interim president.
Meanwhile, the man Mr. Guaidó has been trying to unseat, Nicolás Maduro, is taking something of a victory lap. On a rare foreign trip to Turkey this week, Mr. Maduro, who is the target of U.S. sanctions and a federal narcotics indictment, denounced the decision to exclude him and leftist allies from Cuba and Nicaragua from the gathering as a “stab” in the back of regional cooperation.
“This is a clear win for Mr. Maduro,” Eric Farnsworth, vice president of the Council of Americas, said from Los Angeles, where he was attending the summit. “He's seen allies take up his cause at the summit while preventing his primary rival, whom Washington recognises as president, from attending.” In what may be an attempt at damage control, Mr. Biden on Wednesday spoke with Mr. Guaidó for the first time.
But coming on the heels of weeks of silence from the White House about whether Mr. Guaidó would be invited or not, the call, which lasted around 17 minutes, provided little comfort to Venezuela's pro-democracy movement.
“We don't want to be seen as party crashers going where we aren't wanted,” said one Mr. Guaidó envoy on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic dealings.
National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan downplayed suggestions the U.S. was snubbing a staunch ally.
Speaking aboard Air Force 1 on its way to Los Angeles, Mr. Sullivan insisted the decision to not invite anyone from the Guaidó camp, and instead involve civil society activists from Venezuela, was a tactical one to encourage negotiations between Mr. Maduro and his opponents that leads to "ultimately a better future for the Venezuelan people.” Mr. Guaido's possible presence at the summit also appears to have irritated many of the Venezuelan government's allies, including Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who decided to skip the summit over the exclusion of Mr. Maduro and the leaders of Cuba and Nicaragua.
A Mexican official confirmed that his government asked the U.S. to exclude Mr. Guaidó as part of its back-and-forth with the Biden administration on the guest list, an effort that ultimately failed to persuade Mr. López Obrador to partake in the summit. The official, who requested anonymity to discuss diplomatic dealings, said that other countries had done the same.
Joining the Mexican leader's boycott were fellow leftist leaders of Bolivia, Grenada, Honduras, St. Kitts & Nevis, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Also staying home in protest, although not in solidarity with Mr. Maduro, were the leaders of El Salvador and Guatemala, as well as the president Uruguay, who was exposed to COVID.
But it's not just foreign pressure that has Mr. Biden wary of inviting Mr. Guaidó.
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered a spike in energy prices, the U.S. has started to re-evaluate its policy on Venezuela, a country that sits atop the world's largest petroleum reserves but whose decades-long decline in oil production has been made worse by U.S. sanctions.
In March, U.S. officials led by Juan Gonzalez, the National Security Council's senior director for the western hemisphere, travelled to Caracas to meet with Mr. Maduro. Then, as now, Mr. Guaidó was kept on the sidelines, with U.S. officials not meeting with him during the several day trip. The goal of the talks was to dangle before Mr. Maduro the possibility of sanctions relief in exchange for a return to negotiations in Mexico with his opponents, something that so far hasn't happened.
Meanwhile, Mr. Guaidó continues to fight for change, although his street appearances are less frequent, and crowds greatly diminished from when he launched his challenge to Mr. Maduro in 2019.
On Saturday, his supporters were met in the western city of Maracaibo, a short distance from Colombia and a flight onward to the U.S., with a barrage of flying plastic chairs and fisticuffs from allies of Maduro.
“The violent ones were left empty handed,” Mr. Guaidó told a small group of supporters to shouts of “Freedom, Freedom, Freedom” after the raucous brawl. “Let's be clear: we are not going to take a single step backward.”
