North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s transformation from ‘rocket man’ to summit maven has caused global excitement about the prospect of peace on the Korean peninsula. On the heel of consecutive meetings with the Chinese and South Korean Presidents, Mr. Kim is now looking forward to a historic summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, scheduled for late May or early June. But watching this diplomatic frenzy, somewhat churlishly, from the sidelines is Japan.
Tokyo’s fear of being left out in the cold as North Korea mends bridges with Seoul and Washington is based on two issues: Japanese abductees and medium-range missiles. Japan says North Korea abducted at least 17 of its citizens in the 1970s and 1980s to train its spies in Japanese language and culture. North Korea has acknowledged 13 of these kidnappings. It allowed five of them to visit Japan in 2002 where they stayed on. However, Pyongyang claims that eight others have died, an assertion that is deeply distrusted by the Japanese public. The issue of abductees remains a domestic hot potato in Japan, one that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has staked much political capital on.
In mid-April, Mr. Abe rushed to the U.S. to meet with President Trump and received assurances that the abductee issue would be raised at the U.S.-North Korea summit. South Korean President Moon Jae-in also reportedly brought it up with Mr. Kim at their meeting on April 27. However, it is clearly not a priority for any country other than Japan. The main focus for the region is on the North’s nuclear and ballistic missile programmes. Here, Tokyo’s worry is the possibility of Mr. Trump striking an agreement to curtail the North’s ability to hit the U.S. mainland without addressing the shorter-range missiles that can reach Japan.
Within range
American fears escalated last year when the North test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the U.S. shore. Japan, however, has long been within range of North Korean weapons. The Nodong ballistic missile, for example, has a maximum range of about 1,290 km and could reach Japan in 10 minutes after take-off.
Mr. Moon has said the North Koreans are open to talking with Japan at any time. But rather than leap at the opportunity, Tokyo has responded with caution, reiterating the need to maintain the policy of maximum pressure on North Korea until more tangible steps are taken towards the complete abandonment of its nuclear weapons and missiles.
Historically there have been several occasions when deals with Pyongyang have been struck, only to fall apart with the North reneging on its promises. Some amount of scepticism is therefore warranted. However, it is also difficult to avoid the impression that Mr. Abe’s lack of enthusiasm might have something to do with his domestic woes. Plagued by nepotism and corruption scandals for over a year, the Japanese PM has benefited politically from North Korea’s belligerent missile testing in 2017. Despite plunging popularity ratings, Mr. Abe won a snap election in October, largely by promoting the idea that strong and experienced leadership was needed at a time of regional crisis.
His main political agenda — that of constitutional revision to give Japan’s military a more muscular role — is abetted by turmoil on the Korean Peninsula. Since the majority of Japanese voters remain opposed to the revision in principle, peace in Korea will make the proposed amendment harder to push through.
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