A centre-right combination of the Democratic Alliance (PSD) and allies (AD) staked a claim to form a minority government after winning the largest number of seats —79 — in Sunday’s snap Portuguese general election, which yielded a hung parliament.
The AD is narrowly ahead of the Goan-origin Prime Minister Antonio Costa’s outgoing Socialist Party (PS), which clocked 77 seats. Both formations were tied at 28.67% in terms of voter support.
The AD is 37 seats short of an absolute majority in a House of 230. They can, perhaps, reach out to eight centrist Liberal Initiative lawmakers and nine ‘others’. PSD leader Luis Montenegro maintained that the Portuguese people had spoken for “a change of government and of policies”. He is now waiting for President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa to invite him to assume office. Historically, the balance of power in the 230-member House has alternated between the PS and the PSD.
For the first time in half a century the far-right in Portuguese politics, in the five-year-old incarnation of the Chega (Enough) party, emerged as a strong force mustering 48 seats and attracting 18% of the votes to finish third. This could compel a PSD-led government to seek Chega’s support to pass legislation..
Mr. Montenegro had insisted he would not turn to Chega for parliamentary business, let alone grant it the status of kingmaker, describing its leader Andre Ventura as “often xenophobic, racist, populist and excessively demagogic”.
Mr. Ventura, formerly a trainee Catholic priest, catapulted into public attention as a football commentator on television before venturing into politics.
As PSD activists celebrated with ‘Victory’ signs for cameras at their party headquarters, Mr. Ventura remarked: “The Portuguese clearly said they want a two-party government: Chega and the Democratic Alliance.”
Four communists and greens and five Left Bloc MPs are potentially PS backers. But even if it cobbled together a coalition to remain in power, it would not retain Mr. Costa, who has been Prime Minister for eight years — the past three and a half months as caretaker.
Mr. Costa, 62, who undertook a state visit to India in 2017, which included a journey to his ancestral village of Rua Abade Faria, Margao, Goa, resigned in November after law enforcement authorities arrested his Chief of Staff and personal adviser together with naming two of his Cabinet Ministers as suspects over alleged irregularities in awarding state contracts.
Mr. Costa’s handling of the COVID pandemic and the economy in what is Western Europe’s poorest nation drew appreciation. Unemployment dipped and Portugal’s GDP growth in 2023 reached 2.3% compared to the European Union (EU) average of 0.7%.
Centre-right wins Portuguese election as far right surges
However, in addition to targeting the perceived corruption, his opponents attacked him on immigration and the stress this has caused to healthcare, housing and public services.
A PSD administration, especially one dependent on a prop-up from Chega in parliament, is expected to embark on tightening migration from outside the EU, thereby posing barriers to Indian businesses or skilled workers establishing a base in Portugal.
‘Operation Vijay’ or Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru’s despatch of the Indian Army to reclaim Goa from Portuguese colonisation in 1961, instigated Portugal to angrily move a resolution at the United Nations Security Council demanding India’s withdrawal. The United States, the United Kingdom, France and China backed the motion, but the Soviet Union vetoed it in a diplomatic triumph for New Delhi. Indo-Portuguese relations, though, predictably plummeted, as Lisbon took considerable umbrage at being so unceremoniously evicted.
In contrast, Mr. Costa’s strategy was to make Portugal ‘India’s gateway to Europe’, recommending it as a staging post for cooperation in technology, defence and shipping in the EU.
Mr. Costa joined the youth wing of the Socialist Party in 1975 after a bloodless armed forces’ coup against a 48-year Far Right dictatorship in 1974 — known as the Carnation Revolution — paved the way for a transition to democracy. His launchpad for becoming secretary-general of the PS — a stepping stone to becoming prime minister — was the mayorship of the Portuguese capital between 2007 and 2015. His relatively frugal ways earned him the salutation of ‘Gandhi of Lisbon’.
The current PS secretary-general Pedro Nuno Santos, who succeeded Mr. Costa, stated: ‘We will be the opposition, we will reorganise the party and we will seek to win back the Portuguese who are dissatisfied with the PS.’
Mr. Costa once told media: ‘Against the politics of fear, we need to build hope … that is why Gandhi’s actions and ideas will continue to inspire many around the globe in their non-violent resistance to authoritarian governments …’
Politics in Portugal could now be metamorphosing into a different kind of inspiration and outlook.
(Ashis Ray is a London-based journalist)
