The story so far: The U.S. midterm elections held on November 8, which included contests for a wide range of positions in both houses of Congress and numerous state-level political offices, witnessed Democrats retaining control of the Senate and Republicans narrowly taking back the House of Representatives. This leaves the seat of the U.S. federal government more divided than it was before the election, requiring the White House of President Joe Biden to seek policy compromises with Republican Congressmen. Without such bipartisan bridge-building, it may be nearly impossible to get critical legislation passed and surmount the serious economic, public health and diplomatic challenges that the Biden administration faces. Failure by Democrats to reach across the aisle could jeopardise the prospects of the 46th president to leave behind a robust legacy on issues such as immigration, reproductive rights, and criminal justice reform.
Was there a ‘red wave’?
Earlier this year, voter surveys hinted at the strong possibility of a “red wave” favouring Republicans in Congressional and state-level races, which would have potentially catapulted conservatives into power amidst deep disenchantment with the performance of Democrats in office, including the White House and Capitol Hill. After all, U.S. mid-term elections have traditionally served as a referendum on the sitting President, and Mr. Biden’s job approval ratings have been one of the lowest on record at under 40%, according to recent polls. However, several developments appeared to militate against this early trend and no such wave occurred.
Editorial | A mixed bag: On U.S. midterm elections
How much did the legacy of the Trump administration matter?
The bipartisan Congressional committee looking into the deadly January 6, 2021, attack by a mob on the Capitol buildings painted a disturbing picture of the role of former President Donald Trump and his allies in attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election by instigating violence and fuelling the politics of hate. For example, the committee established from witness accounts and video evidence that Mr. Trump had stood back and refused to intervene, even as the rioting got out of control and far-right groups unleashed organised violence at the site of the Capitol, resulting in the deaths of several officials, property damage, and an unprecedented security threat to members of Congress in the building. The broader context of hate politics in the backdrop of this unsavoury episode was also highlighted during the committee’s deliberations, especially the vicious election campaign of Mr. Trump and his acolytes. It comprised of denigrating minorities and women and included a targeted misinformation campaign against the election results claiming falsely that the election had been “stolen” through ballot voting, which was necessitated by the prevailing conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a good chance that the sheer polarising potential of this rhetoric played on the minds of some voters, especially independent and undecided voters, dampening enthusiasm for election-denier candidates. For example, in swing states, candidates who cast aspersions on the validity of the 2020 election lost resoundingly, with a few exceptions: in the 13 races in six battleground states where an election denier was on the ballot for governor, secretary of state or attorney general, 12 lost, according to election reports.
Did the 2022 abortion ruling affect voter preferences?
A second major political development that may have ended up favouring Democrats was the June decision by the U.S. Supreme Court to overrule women’s constitutional right to abortion as enshrined in the ruling of the 1973 Roe vs Wade case. Republican triumphalism, which came on the back of Mr. Trump nominating three Supreme Court justices and tipping the balance of the apex body 6-3 towards conservatives, proved to be short-lived, as numerous states such as Kentucky pushed back against the abortion ban and liberal voters across the board were galvanised and mobilised in force earlier this month. In some recent surveys, including AP/VoteCast, 70% of respondents said the abortion ruling was “an important factor” in their voting decision, approximately 60% said they were “angry or dissatisfied” by it, and nearly 60% said they favoured a law “guaranteeing access to legal abortion nationwide.”
What is the post-election scenario?
The Senate, which was poised on a 50-50 razor’s edge seat distribution, tipped towards the Democrats. Key to that mid-term election outcome was the defeat in the Pennsylvania Senate race of the Trump-endorsed candidate Mehmet Oz to Democrat John Fetterman, giving Democrats 50 clear seats to Republicans’ 49. One state, Georgia, will hold a runoff election on December 6 to decide the winner, and Vice-President Kamala Harris holds a tie-breaking vote, which puts Democrats in a slightly improved position for the 118th Congress that will kick off on January 3, 2023. The House of Representatives flipped from Democrat to Republican in the 2022 mid-term election. While Republicans have already crossed the majority mark of 218 in the 435-seat House, they nevertheless must reckon with the grim reality of having a narrow margin of victory, possibly close to the 221-212 margin that they had in 2001, including support from independents.
What will be the consequences of the new balance of power in Congress?
On the one hand, Democrats are no doubt breathing a sigh of relief over holding the Senate, for this implies that important aspects of policy including the nomination of judges to various courts can proceed unimpeded, sans Republican obstructionism in the Upper House. It may help them forget the bitter memory of the scenario under the Obama administration in 2016, when erstwhile Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell refused to conduct a vote on the White House’s Supreme Court nominee, Merrick Garland. Their grip on the Senate also implies that Democrats can comfortably reject bills passed by the House and set their own agenda to counter the narrative of the House, which will doubtless have the Biden administration in its crosshairs.
The situation at the House will likely be the mirror image of this: Republicans will be free to launch probes into a wide range of policy issues, including the business dealings of Mr. Biden’s son, Hunter; border policies with a view to stem the flow of undocumented workers and stopping immigrants from “stealing American jobs”; the recent FBI search of Mr. Trump’s residence at Mar-a-Lago, Florida, for classified documents; and the bureaucratic decision-making behind COVID-related school closures and vaccine mandates. Based on the Origination Clause, the House is also charged with initiating revenue bills and could use its leverage in this regard to force financially painful federal government shutdowns as it has done in the past for political advantage. Incoming Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy has hinted at ways in which House control by Republicans could impact even foreign policy decisions of the Biden administration when he indicated that he would be averse to giving a “blank cheque” to Ukraine as part of U.S. and NATO support to the country, in its pushback against the Russian invasion.
While Mr. Biden has said the mid-term election results proved that voters want both parties to govern through cooperative bipartisanship, he underscored the absence of a red wave, saying, “I’m not going to change anything in any fundamental way.”
- The U.S. midterm elections held on November 8, which included contests for a wide range of positions in both houses of Congress and numerous state-level political offices, witnessed Democrats retaining control of the Senate and Republicans narrowly taking back the House of Representatives.
- A second major political development that may have ended up favouring Democrats was the June decision by the U.S. Supreme Court to overrule women’s constitutional right to abortion as enshrined in the ruling of the 1973 Roe vs Wade case.
- Democrats can comfortably reject bills passed by the House and set their own agenda to counter the narrative of the House, which will doubtless have the Biden administration in its crosshairs.
