British Prime Minister Theresa May’s hope of gaining validation of her party’s Brexit strategy at the ballot box looked in tatters on Thursday night, as the result of an exit poll suggested that the Conservatives would win with 12 seats short of the number they’d need to form a majority government. It would also mark one of the most dramatic shift in the polls, and, given that the Conservative campaign was pegged closely around Ms. May personally, would put the future of her leadership at stake.
The BBC exit poll, released at 10 p.m. local time put the Conservatives on 314 seat, a drop of 17 seats, and Labour on 266, a gain of 34. The poll also suggested a sharp fall in the number of SNP (Scottish National Party) seats to 34 (a 22 seat decline) and a rise of 6 seats to 14 of the Liberal Democrats.
If accurate, the results raise the possibility of either the Conservatives or Labour putting together a coalition government — the Conservative potentially with Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, or one involving Labour. The Liberal Democrats, who had formed the previous coalition government with the Conservatives, have ruled out forming a coalition this time round, making other parties such as the SNP and Wales Plaim Cymru, potential partners.
Rejection of May?
The close result is a sharp reversal of the comfortable lead that the Conservatives had in April, when Ms. May called the general election. Commentators had suggested that turnout, particularly among young people, would be key to the result, with Labour benefiting from a high turnout particularly among young people who had been inspired by Labour Leader Jeremcy Corbyn’s campaign, centred around the idea of “For the Many Not the Few,” against the Conservatives’ “strong and stable” emphasis.
The results would be a personal disaster for Ms. May, around whom the entire Conservative campaign was pegged, but whose personal ratings have fallen sharply over the course of the campaign. This was the result of a combination of policy blunders, including on social care for the elderly, and the perception that Ms. May was failing to engage with the electorate directly — for example failing to participate in a televised debate with other leaders.
“When we didn’t know her she appeared a rather magnificent and dignified figure…the more they have seen of her the less they seem to trust her,” Matthew Paris, a political commentator, and former Conservative MP told ITV News on Thursday night.
“This election is a rejection of May and hard Brexit. A vote for one to go and the other to be revisited,” tweeted Alastair Campbell, former campaign director to Tony Blair.
Advantage Corbyn
The result would be a validation of the approach of Mr. Corbyn, under whose leadership there has been a groundswell of support for Labour, against the belief of many in his party, including within Parliament, where he faced a vote of no confidence in 2016. The results could potentially be the best performacen for the party since 2001.
When calling the general election, the Conservatives had counted on capitalizing on a collapse in support for UKIP, as the Conservatives became the party of Brexit, as well as perceived lack of public support for the Labour party, but that assessment began to run into trouble in May when the parties released their manifestos, with the Labour party’s praised for reflecting both some of Mr. Corbyn’s more radical policies as well as those of the wider party.
The Labour party also attempted to allay concerns that its ambitions were not fiscally viable by fully costing its proposals. While in the early days the Conservative campaign attempted to pitch itself around Ms May and ‘her team” as the polls narrowed, its campaign grew more negative, focusing instead on attacking the “coalition of chaos” that could result from a Labour victory.
“If I lose just six seats in this election, the government will lose its majority and Jeremy Corbyn will be sitting down with the prime ministers, presidents and chancellors of Europe in just a few days time,” she said once again on Thursday, as polls showed a narrowing in the polls.
