Jeb Bush led Florida as a two-term governor and Marco Rubio has been a senator there since 2011, but voters seem to prefer brash billionaire Donald Trump in the Republican presidential primary race.
Mr. Trump is outpacing both of the state’s resident sons as he continues to dominate early opinion polls and he is hoping to maintain that advantage with a heavy investment in the state beginning on Friday, when he arrives for a two-day campaign swing his first as a presidential candidate.
While Florida doesn’t hold its primary until March 15, Mr. Trump recently brought on a campaign director for the state and plans to open an office there in early November, campaign manager Corey Lewandowski said.
For Mr. Trump, the prize could be a chance to knock out two major rivals on their home turf. A University of North Florida poll of likely Republican primary voters out this week found Mr. Trump with the support of 22 percent. Ben Carson, who also lives in the state, had 19 per cent. Mr. Marco Rubio was third with 15 per cent and Mr. Jeb Bush fourth with 9 percent.
Mr. Trump, appearing on Miami radio’s “Paul & Young Ron Show,” said it was “amazing” that he’s leading “your two folks that are running.”
Longtime operatives and pollsters in the state say that like many potential voters nationwide, many Republicans in Florida are looking for a change. While Mr. Trump has never taken up residence in the state, he has a home in Palm Beach as well as several business ventures, and is well known in philanthropic circles.
Jamie Miller, former executive director of the state Republican Party, said Florida has been receptive to outsider candidates. In 1992, he noted, Ross Perot won nearly 20 per cent of the state’s vote. Gov. Rick Scott is another former businessman who won as a rookie politician in 2010 after spending $70 million of his own cash.
Kinsey Craichy, a business owner, said he likes Mr. Bush but it’s not time for “business-as-usual” politicians. Mr. Rubio is a future star but “right now is not the time for on-the-job training,” Mr. Craichy said.
Alex Conant, Mr. Rubio’s campaign spokesman, played down the Florida numbers, saying “polls don’t matter at this stage.”
Mr. Rubio has been “up and down in the polls, and he’s currently rising,” said Mr. Conant.
For his part, Mr. Bush said this week on CNN that Mr. Trump is “capturing people’s deep anger and angst about Washington, D.C.” He predicted Mr. Trump’s support will wane after voters consider “who has the judgment and the seriousness and the ideas to be president.”
Michael Binder, a University of North Florida pollster and political science professor, said Mr. Trump’s “shine is starting to wear off,” noting his approval percentage was the lowest in recent statewide polls.
