The presidential campaigns are moving into a cluster of delegate-rich state primary elections and caucuses, with Republican billionaire businessman Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton, the former secretary of state, gathering momentum.
Mr. Trump, the brash New Yorker, had a resounding victory in South Carolina on Saturday, sweeping all 50 delegates. Heading into Tuesday’s Republican caucuses in Nevada, he has 67 delegates. Since his key opponents, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, took no delegates in South Carolina, they are left with a total of 11 and 10, respectively. It takes 1,237 to capture the nomination.
Mr. Rubio is battling to set himself up as the candidate of the party establishment now that former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is out of the race. The more conservative Mr. Cruz, who is not liked by the party establishment, is unlikely to finish above second or third in the coming contests, except in his home state of Texas.
With roughly 70 per cent of Republicans in national polls declining to back Mr. Trump, Mr. Cruz and Mr. Rubio are trying to cast themselves as the one candidate around whom what Mr. Rubio calls the “alternative-to-Donald-Trump vote” can coalesce.
A close look at the election calendar suggests that if Mr. Trump’s rivals don’t slow him by mid-March, their only chance to deny him the Republican presidential nomination may be a nasty and public fight at the party’s convention this summer.
Among the Democrats, Ms. Clinton won a substantial victory on Saturday in the Nevada caucuses over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, but she acknowledges that she has work to do in convincing voters she has their best interests at heart.
“I think there’s an underlying question that maybe is really in the back of people’s minds and that is, you know, is she in it for us or is she in it for herself?” Ms. Clinton said on CNN on Sunday. “I think that is a question that people are trying to sort through.”
A large majority of black voters supported Ms. Clinton in Nevada, according to entrance polls. That bodes well for her in Saturday’s Democratic primary in South Carolina and on so-called Super Tuesday next week, when primaries are held in several southern states where African-Americans make up a large part of the Democratic electorate.
Mr. Sanders has yet to prove he can consistently expand his base of support beyond white liberals and young voters. His campaign cited progress with Latinos in Nevada, but his advisers are clear-eyed about the challenges on Super Tuesday, which offers a large haul of delegates who will choose the party’s nominee at the national convention in July.
Mr. Sanders listed Colorado, Minnesota, Massachusetts and Oklahoma as places where he has a “good shot” to do well on Super Tuesday.
But he has acknowledged that while his insurgent campaign has made strides, “at the end of the day ... you need delegates.” Ms. Clinton has amassed a vast lead in Democrat super delegates, party officials who can support any candidate regardless of primary or caucus outcomes. She has captured the support of 451 superdelegates compared with Mr. Sanders’ 19.
More than half the 2,383 delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination will be determined in the 28 states that hold primaries and caucuses in March.
Beyond Super Tuesday, Ms. Clinton and Mr. Sanders are looking ahead to the March 15 contests in Florida, Illinois, Missouri and Ohio. Big wins in those states for either candidate would put the nomination within sight.
