The run-up to this year’s French presidential election has been different from the past. While a number of big names failed to win candidacies of their respective parties, the chosen candidates of the traditionally strong Socialist and Republicans parties face the prospect of not reaching the second round. One of the two non-mainstream candidates who have disrupted this election is the 39-year-old Emmanuel Macron, whose centrist ideology has attracted a large following from both the right and the left.
But that is not the only reason why the former Economy Minister has become a strong contender for the presidency. According to Jim Shields, a Professor of French Politics and Modern History at Aston University Birmingham, Mr. Macron responds to a widely felt need for renewal in French politics. “His appeal lies in his youthful energy and claim to be a new man with a mission to revitalise France, with echoes of Valéry Giscard d’Estaing in 1974. Like Mr. Giscard, Mr. Macron is positioning himself in the centre ground, taking elements from both the left and the right, balancing, for example, budgetary discipline and zero-tolerance on crime, with new protections for the most vulnerable in society,” Mr. Shields said. Mr. Macron’s remarkable rise has made this year’s election unprecedented and unpredictable. While Mr. Macron is on ascent, Francois Fillon suffered a major setback a few weeks ago. In November, Mr. Fillon defeated heavyweights like Alain Juppe and former President Nicolas Sarkozy in the primaries to emerge as the candidate of the centre-right Republicans party.
Fake jobs scandal
Until the end of January, the general opinion was that the 63-year-old Mr. Fillon, who was the Prime Minister from 2007 to 2012, would win the Presidential election ahead of Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right Front National, and Mr. Macron. However, Mr. Fillon’s fortunes plummeted after the fake jobs scandal broke out in late January for which he was charged on Tuesday for offences that included misuse of public money. Professor Shields said this scandal also makes the election stand out. “Never before in the history of the Fifth Republic has a major candidate gone into a presidential election under formal criminal investigation.” The scandal has put Mr. Fillon in third place behind Ms. Le Pen and Mr. Macron in the recent polls. Mr. Fillon’s rating is close to 20% while that of Mr. Macron and Ms. Le Pen is around 25% and 26% respectively.
Despite the barrage of criticism and negative publicity that Mr. Fillon has faced over the past seven weeks, not everyone is ready to rule out his chances. Paris-based economist Jean Joseph Boillot feels that while Ms. Le Pen will enter the second round of the election, Mr. Fillon can still win against Mr. Macron in the first round. “In the coming weeks, Macron has to publicly face very tough and experienced candidates like Fillon, Le Pen and even the Left candidate Jean Luc Melenchon to defend his centrist programme. Till now, it was that he is modern, young and has a new profile... but Fillon, for instance, has an elaborate programme,” Mr. Boillot said. According to Professor Shields, Mr. Macron has potential weaknesses. “His claims to be an outsider looking to reform ‘the system’ hardly sit well with his background as a graduate of the elite Ecole Nationale d’Administration, a former Rothschild banker and a high-flying presidential adviser and Minister to François Hollande... he has a tightrope to walk all the way to the Elysée,” he said.
Mr. Boillot contends that whoever joins Ms. Le Pen in the second round will be the favourite to become the President.
